ATP Basel delivers the match most tennis fans have hoped for.
Neither Roger Federer nor Novak Djokovic had an easy semifinal match. Federer faced break points in a tight first set and his opponent Marco Chiudinelli actually held one set point in the match. Djokovic had a much tougher time against Radek Stepanek but managed to bounce back from 1 set down and triple match point down. Federer and Djokovic now renew their rivalry in the ATP Basel final.
Head to head Federer leads this series 9-4 but the head to head history is a little tighter when hard court matches are isolated since the start of 2008. From the 2008 Australian Open until their most recent match at this year's US Open, Federer has only a slight 3-2 edge in their series on hardcourt with Djokovic winning their only other match (clay).
The odds in this match are obviously going to favor Federer and Betfair has opened at -275 (4/11) for Federer to win while Djokovic opens long at +185 (33/20).
The recent head to head history on hard court would support picking Djokovic at the odds listed as a mathematical choice. He has beaten Federer about 40% of the time on that surface in the last two years and so anything longer than +150 (3/2), which has implied odds of 40% and you should be good to let your bet on Djokovic fly.
While neither player had a cakewalk in the semis at least Djokovic's tough match was against Radek Stepanek, a player who is hanging around the top 20 a lot longer than most 30 year olds. Many are beginning to tip Djokovic as the next number 1 while some see Federer fading in the next year.
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