Updated odds and recommendations for Rafael Nadal and his prices in the Slams in 2010.
Rafael Nadal looked deadly on clay at the Davis Cup but the competition he defeated was not top level. However many people still have Nadal as their top pick to win the 2010 French Open based on his success there before 2009. Here are Nadal's odds in the futures market for the 4 Grand Slams in 2010.
Australian Open, +700 (7/1), Boylesports
French Open, -137 (about 5/7), Paddy Power
Wimbledon, +400 (4/1), Sportingbet
US Open, +600 (6/1), Boylesports
The odds reveal that people out there still believe in the Spaniard. They don't believe in him for the Australian Open, and they shouldn't because it is just around the corner and Nadal is not on top form, but people believe that Nadal will find his best game again in the long run and in time for Roland Garros.
However if you accept the assumption that Nadal's struggles against the top players are going to continue in the early months of 2010 then you have to recognize that a whole lot of tour points are in jeopardy for Nadal.
Nadal is the defending champion at the following events that all take place before the French Open:
Australian Open, ranking points from 2009: 2000
ATP Rome, ranking points from 2009: 1000
ATP Monte Carlo, ranking points from 2009: 1000
ATP Indian Wells, ranking points from 2009: 1000
ATP Barcelona, ranking points from 2009: 500
Nadal is a defending finalist at the following events that all take place before the French Open:
ATP Madrid, ranking points from 2009: 600
ATP Rotterdam, ranking points from 2009: 300
Throw in 225 points from Miami and Doha and what do you get?
Of Nadal's 9205 ranking points, 6625 are from events that took place before the 2009 French Open. That means Nadal has a lot of work to do to maintain his rank in the early months of 2010 and if he wants to stay ranked 2nd in the world, then he better find a way to beat Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, and Robin Soderling fast.
While Murray hasn't played Nadal since April, the other four players are a combined 9-0 against Nadal starting with the 4th round of the 2009 French Open and they all threaten to gain big time ground on the Spaniard before the 2010 French Open begins.
Nadal can't be touched for the Aussie because his form is way too questionable on hard court surfaces at this point. He can't be touched for the French because his odds are way too short for someone that went out in the 4th round last year. Even if he has won the event four times, you aren't betting Nadal's form from 2005 to 2008: betting on ghosts is the worst thing sports bettors do.
Nadal can't be bet for the US Open because he's never even made the final there, even when he was on top form.
The only betting angle on Nadal for the next year of Grand Slams is for Wimbledon 2010 at +400. He won the event the last time he played it and maybe by the time it rolls around in the summer, Nadal will look different than he has looked in the past few months.
Our recommendation with Nadal is only to sprinkle him at +400 so that you can get away from the bet with only minimal damage if his poor form ends up being here to stay.
Go to Sportingbet to bet on Grand Slam futures.