Nadal's odds are still on the shorter side of EVEN.
Rafael Nadal still leads the futures market at this time for the 2010 French Open outright winner in men's singles, as Paddy Power have him priced at -110 (10/11).
Here are the updated odds for the players that we think will be at least reasonably strong contenders at Roland Garros, along with their best betting price, followed by our recommended bet:
1. Rafael Nadal, -110 (10/11), Paddy Power
2. Roger Federer, +250 (5/2), Ladbrokes
3. Juan Martin Del Potro, +450 (9/2), Stan James
4. Novak Djokovic, +800 (8/1), Stan James
5. Andrew Murray, +1200 (12/1), bet365
6. Nikolay Davydenko, +1400 (14/1), Ladbrokes
7. Fernando Verdasco, +4000 (40/1), Paddy Power
8. Gael Monfils, +5000 (50/1), Paddy Power
9. David Nalbandian, +6600 (66/1), William Hill
10. Robin Soderling, +5000 (50/1), bet365
11. Marin Cilic, +5000 (50/1), bet365
12. Fernando Gonzalez, +10000 (100/1), Stan James
The argument against betting Nadal is almost too obvious to make although judging by his odds, tons of people need some advice.
Rafael Nadal is injury prone, he hasn't won a tournament since the spring of 2009, and he's not the player that won the French Open for four years running before 2009.
Nadal has been in and out of tennis with injury for the last 9 months and although his heart and personal drive are both unquestionable you have to be really cautious with betting the Spaniard because of the strength of his body. If he ends up lame for Roland Garros he will have incredible difficulty winning matches in the late rounds just like he did at the Aussie against Andy Murray and just like he did at the US Open against Juan Martin Del Potro (Nadal lost both matches convincingly).
Robin Soderling's 4th round victory over Nadal last year is much more indicative of Nadal's abilities on clay now than his historical results from earlier years are.
Before you top Nadal up any further, as many of you undoubtedly have already bet him, ask yourself this: do you really think that -110 (10/11) is good value for an injury prone player that couldn't get past the 4th round of the French last year?
Without much doubt many will say yes because of Nadal's former success in Paris but one of the biggest mistakes bettors make is betting on 'ghosts' and that's what Nadal is at Roland Garros this year.
Another thing to keep in mind is that many sportsbooks will not refund your bet if Nadal withdraws from the tournament without playing a single point. This is something you need to check with your sportbook with but a lot of futures market bets are straight action and injuries are part of the risk.
Our recommendation is to go with Roger Federer at +250 with Ladbrokes as he should clearly be the favorite in this event. He won last year and his victory at the Australian Open shows he's not yet slowing down.
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