Stepanek looks to defend his title.

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Radek Stepanek and Andy Roddick will meet in the ATP Brisbane final in Australia this weekend and, despite the fact that Stepanek is the defending champion, Roddick is coming in as the favorite. 

While many tennis fans probably would have been hoping for an Andy Roddick/Gael Monfils final in Brisbane, Radek Stepanek will be a better test for the American star.  Stepanek, 31 years old, isn't dropping off of the face of the Earth in terms of tennis rankings like most 30+ year olds do and that is earning him a lot of respect on tour.

Roddick, however, has beaten Stepanek head to head in 5 of their 6 career matches, 2 of which have come in tour event finals.  Partly due to that, in the Brisbane final, Roddick has come in as a -225 (4/9; Paddy Power, Stan James, Boylesports) favorite while Stepanek is the underdog at +200 (2/1; Sportingbet, Coral).

Roddick's odds of -225 have an implied probability of 69.23%, meaning if you were to bet Roddick at -225, you would be betting that he could beat Stepanek more than 69.23% of the time in this situation.  Given that Roddick has won 5 of their 6 matches, or 83.33% of their matches, Roddick's odds of -225 certainly appear to be valuable.  Neither player appears to be significantly advantaged by a home court and Roddick is the better hard court player.

Stepanek is playing solid, he is on form, and he should test the American.  However, Roddick's true chance of winning appears to be greater than 70%, which makes Roddick the correct pick in this match.

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