Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray are near-locks for the quarters. Opponents remain to be decided.
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The draw for Wimbledon 2011, which was released on Friday, instigated a parade of speculation regarding who will do what at SW19 this month and into July.
That speculation will not end until the results actually pour in and my personal speculation on the topic is largely influenced by the fact that there was no parity in the men's draw for the last Grand Slam in terms of who made the semifinals.
The 2011 French Open saw the top four seeds make the semis and something like that should be expected at Wimbledon this year. Accordingly, in making predictions for the Wimbledon quarterfinalists, I would simply start right here:
(1) Rafael Nadal vs (Opponent yet to be determined)
(4) Andy Murray vs (Opponent yet to be determined)
(3) Roger Federer vs (Opponent yet to be determined)
(2) Novak Djokovic vs (Opponent yet to be determined)
If any of the top four players faces a major threat ahead of the Wimbledon quarters it could very well be Nadal. He didn't play great tennis in the opening rounds of last year's Wimbledon tournament, he was fined for getting coaching from Uncle Tony in what looked like a brewing upset against Philipp Petzschner, and Nadal has a draw in the third and fourth round next week that could be against Milos Raonic and Juan Martin Del Potro respectively.
Nadal perseveres through that draw in my opinion but he does have the toughest draw of the top four players in the tournament, especially if Raonic's serve lives up to the hype.
Predicting the other quarterfinalists is an exceptionally difficult task partly because the qualifying tournament is not yet complete. One player in the qualifying tournament, Ryan Harrison, has enough potential to cause a couple upsets and where he'll be placed in the draw (if at all) could significantly affect the balance of talent in small sections of the draw.
I may adjust my quarterfinal picks after the qualifying tournament is complete however with the information available now, here are my picks:
All odds to win tournament outright from bet365.
Kohlschreiber is a recent titlist having won ATP Halle, Monfils played well at the French Open, Tsonga made the final of London's Queen's Club, and Soderling's eighth did not have anyone else I could pick with confidence although I think the Swede will be in tough in the first round if Petzschner is fit (Halle withdrawal).
Whether Nadal, Murray, Federer, and Djokovic all advance to the semifinals again remains to be seen but I think Tsonga has the best chance of acting as spoiler. Federer skipped his Wimbledon warm-up tournament while Tsonga nearly won the Queen's title in London last week.
That implies upset potential and Tsonga, whose ranking is improving once again, did make the Wimbledon quarters last year.
The qualifying matches for Wimbledon are scheduled to conclude on Saturday with the main draw scheduled for June 20th and the men's final for July 3rd.
