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Why Novak Djokovic's Loss at French Open is Not Surprising

Novak Djokovic (credit: Wikipedia)
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Djokovic suffered a so-called shocking defeat at the hands of Roger Federer on Friday at Roland Garros one of our staff writers wasn't among the people surprised.

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Novak Djokovic saw his winning streak that opened the 2011 ATP season end as the Serbinator suffered a defeat on Friday to Roger Federer in the French Open semifinals. While many were shocked at the Serb's loss it should not be viewed as that surprising as Djokovic had a history of suffering 'shock' defeats at the Paris Grand Slam.

As I pointed out in an article from May 18th, 2011 just prior to the 2011 French Open:

"In the last two years running...Djokovic has suffered questionable losses at Roland Garros and that's where some criticism of him can be grounded despite his impeccable form this season.

In 2009 Philipp Kohlschreiber took Djokovic out of the Grand Slam in Paris....Last year...the unthinkable...happened as (Jurgen Melzer), who was playing in his first quarterfinal in a major, went back door and shocked Djokovic with a five set loss.

Djokovic has failed to live up to expectations for two years in a row in Paris although this year the likes of Melzer and Kohlschreiber won't be good enough."

Federer was good enough however and Djokovic, with his semifinal loss, just missed earning the top ranking on tour although there are plenty of realistic scenarios where the world number two would overtake Rafa with Wimbledon results.

It looks like Nadal will have to win Wimbledon outright and then hope that Djokovic does not improve upon his semifinal result from last season in order for Rafa to stay on top of the rankings.

But truthfully, despite the fact that Djokovic has just one loss on the year, what reason is there to believe that the Serb will make the Wimbledon final?

Djokovic has turned in some questionable losses at the All England Club in his career, even since making the top 10. The current world number two appeared to have a dream draw to the final last season as he faced Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarters and then Tomas Berdych in the semis.

However Berdych took Djokovic out in straight sets to prevent the Serbian from going through as the Czech player turned in his best Slam result to date. 

In 2009 a 31 year old Tommy Haas, a player not even ranked in the top 30 at the time of their match, knocked Djokovic out in the quarterfinals at the All England Club. Djokovic was just 22 at the time of the match and you generally expect the young guns to beat the 30+ veterans in the late rounds of Grand Slams.

In 2008, 75th ranked Marat Safin eliminated Djokovic in the second round, another pitiful loss at the All England Club, while Nadal defeated the Serb in the semis of 2007.

When Roland Garros 2011 was being previewed everyone was fixated on Djokovic's form in 2011 instead of his form from previous French Opens. Perhaps his fans are guilty of the same mistake heading into Wimbledon as Djokovic's has lost to players of lower rankings in the last three straight years, including two losses to players who were not even close to being in the top ten.

Give Djokovic credit for the semifinals at Wimbledon but if he faces Andy Murray or Roger Federer in those semis don't be surprised at all if the Serbinator suffers a loss.

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