Staff writer Shane Lambert offers his opinions surrounding Wimbledon this year and suggests that a new grass court champion may emerge.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have combined for 23 of the last 28 Grand Slams in men's tennis. These are the only Grand Slam tournaments that have been won by somebody else since Federer took down his first title at Wimbledon 2003:
US Open 2009 - Juan Martin Del Potro
Australian Open 2008 - Novak Djokovic
Australian Open 2005 - Marat Safin
French Open 2004 - Gaston Gaudio
US Open 2003 - Andy Roddick
The dominance by Nadal and Federer in Grand Slams has shut some pretty good players out. Nikolay Davydenko has been a top player on tour for years but he's never made a Grand Slam final and a big part of that is that he is close to the same age as Roger Federer. Andy Murray is 23 years old and he's been tipped for the top for a few years now and yet he was not able to surpass Federer in 2 Slam finals (US Open 2008, Australian Open 2010).
Lleyton Hewitt has not won a Slam since 2002 and losing 15 matches in a row to Federer, a streak that just ended, definitely had something to do with that.
Andy Roddick was America's best post-Sampras and post-Agassi hope but going 2-19 heads up against the Swiss Maestro has made Roddick an underachiever in Grand Slams. Neither of his meagre 2 wins over Federer were Grand Slam matches either as this is the head to head series between the two in majors:
Wimbledon 2009: Federer defeats Roddick in 5 sets
Australian Open 2009 semis: Federer defeats Roddick in 3 sets
US Open 2007 quarters: Federer defeats Roddick in 3 sets
Australian Open 2007 semis: Federer defeats Roddick in 3 sets
US Open 2006 finals: Federer defeats Roddick in 4 sets
Wimbledon 2005 finals: Federer defeats Roddick in 3 sets
Wimbledon 2004 finals: Federer defeats Roddick in 4 sets
Wimbledon 2003 semis: Federer defeats Roddick in 3 sets
Grand Slam matches compiled: Federer 8, Roddick 0.
Now as Wimbledon 2010 approaches, Federer and Nadal are once again the top 2 favorites. Nadal is priced at +250 (5/2) with SportingBet while Federer is priced at +150 (3/2) with the same firm.
While Nadal silenced his critics, who were saying that he was washed up due to injuries, by taking down 4 consecutive clay court titles, including the 2010 French Open, there is one serious reason to doubt Nadal heading into Wimbledon: he has not won a non-clay court title since Indian Wells 2009. He won Wimbledon the last time he contested the event in 2008 but that year he also won London Queen's Club and this year he lost in that event to Feliciano Lopez.
Was it just a fluff loss or is Nadal overrated on non-clay court surfaces? One thing's for certain: +250 (5/2) is nothing to get excited about.
Federer's odds are nothing to get excited about either at +150. He has been losing matches to all kinds of different players on tour in the last year and not just the younger stars as Lleyton Hewitt finally broke his winless streak with a net-court match point at Halle on Sunday June 13th.
Hewitt has 2 Grand Slam titles (Wimbledon 2002; US Open 2001) and Roddick has 1 but those are hardly impressive totals for players who were once thought to be the chosen ones of their generation. While no one can question their status as great players, they do still have something to prove because two of the greatest ever happened to peak at the same time. Wimbledon 2010 may be Hewitt's and Roddick's opportunity to finally re-assert themselves as Grand Slam worthy as Federer and Nadal are BOTH overrated, a condition that hasn't been present too often for a long time.
Here are the top 8 favorites in terms of betting odds heading into Wimbledon 2010 as the release date for the draw approaches:
1. Roger Federer +150 (3/2) SportingBet
2. Rafael Nadal +250 (5/2) SportingBet
3. Andy Murray +900 (9/1) Bodog
4. Andy Roddick +1400 (14/1) Totesport
5. Robin Soderling +1600 (16/1) Boylesports
6. Novak Djokovic +2000 (20/1) Boylesports
7. Marin Cilic +4000 (40/1) Totesport
8. Lleyton Hewitt +5000 (50/1) SportingBet
Here are my true favorites for the event independent of the odds:
1. Andy Roddick
2. Andy Murray
3. Roger Federer
4. Lleyton Hewitt
5. Tomas Berdych +5000 (50/1) SportingBet
6. Rafael Nadal
7. Robin Soderling
8. Marin Cilic
If you look strictly at the grass court results from Queen's and Halle then a criticism of each of these players could be made, except for against Hewitt who won Halle and Soderling who was idle. Slams are different than ATP tour events however and Roddick, Murray, and Hewitt are the three players that want Wimbledon 2010 the most.
My prediction is that one of them wins and when the odds are looked all three can be bet provided you stick with best prices offered.
When registering with either Boylesports, Bodog, or SportingBet to bet on Wimbledon 2010 be sure to use MAXIMUMBONUS as your promotional code. Those in North America looking for Wimbledon betting lines and live streaming of the event should register with bet365.