Federer and Murray are the most recent Masters champions and they are the most serious threats to win the 2010 US Open.

The draw for the 2010 US Open will be announced later today and it will be interesting to see which what the potential semifinalists could look like. 

Federer and Murray are the two hard court champions from ATP Cincinnati and ATP Toronto but they won't necessarily be on opposite sides of the draw, although a Federer vs Murray final would definitely be huge.

Here are the top 3 contenders according to betting odds:

1.  Roger Federer +250 (5/2) SportingBet
2.  Rafael Nadal +333 (10/3) SkyBet
3.  Andy Murray +375 (15/4) Bwin

Nadal, at +333 (10/3) is a terrible pick to win the US Open - he can't beat Murray on the hard courts (loss at ATP Toronto), he can't beat Andy Roddick (loss in Miami Masters), and if you really want to get cynical then it's safe to say that Nadal can't even beat an on-form Marcos Baghdatis on the hard courts (Cincinnati). 

It is clear as day that Nadal is the best clay courter and grass courter in the world but what is equally clear is that he is NOT a top 5 hard courter and Rafa backers should be backing off to save themselves a lost bet.

Nadal's chances of winning the US Open might actually be more like +1500 and perhaps that's generous.

Roger Federer and Andy Murray should BOTH be backed to win the 2010 US Open.  Obviously they can't both win but their odds are long enough that the losing bet will pay for the winning bet and there isn't much between them right now. 

Federer is the better pure talent but he is slowly losing his edge as Murray makes strides.  At some point Murray will have to surpass Federer in a Grand Slam match just because the Scot has youth on his side and that could be at the 2010 US Open or it could be later.

While betting both Murray and Federer is a less gutsy play it is also very likely to produce a winning and profitable bet.

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