There are 3 clear contenders plus 3 tough outs.
Last year's 2009 US Open saw Serena Williams beat Jelena Jankovic in the final with two Russians, Dinara Safina and Elena Dementieva, exiting in the semifinals. Those four players are among the six contenders for this year's title and there are two others.
Here are the top 6 players expected to win the 2009 US Open for women's singles and their valuable betting prices, as found by this site's staff, within various online Sportsbooks:
1. Serena Williams, +225 (9/4), Paddy Power
2. Venus Williams, +500 (5/1), Ladbrokes
3. Elena Dementieva, +900 (9/1), Ladbrokes
4. Maria Sharapova, +1000 (10/1), Stan James
5. Dinara Safina, +1200 (12/1), Blue Square
6. Kim Clijsters, +1700 (17/1), betfair
Those odds above and the positioning of the favorites reflect betting trends by the public and the beliefs of odds setters. While it's accurate to state that those are most of the leading contenders, some juggling of positioning needs to be done and the following ranking list is probably more accurate (world ranking in brackets):
1. Serena Williams (2)
2. Elena Dementieva (4)
3. Jelena Jankovic (5)
4. Venus Williams (3)
5. Dinara Safina (1)
6. Maria Sharapova (30)
Serena Williams is the best player on tour at the moment. She is about 900 points back of Safina and she, Williams, could realistically overtake top spot on the tour in New York. Grand Slam championships provide 2000 ranking points to the champion so a couple things could possibly align in Flushing Meadows to topple queen Safina: if S. Williams wins and Safina falls in the semis (or earlier), then Williams would become number 1 in the world (again).
Popular opinion, including Serena's assumingly, already puts Williams as the world number 1. She holds the Wimbledon title, the Australian Open title, and the about to be disputed US Open title. Williams elevates her games for Grand Slam events and will be the toughest player to beat in the women's draw in New York. She is only ranked second because of inferior results compared to Safina in inferior tournaments and because of her, Serena's, personal decision to play fewer events.
She is followed, in our list, by worthy rival Elena Dementieva, who took Williams out of the Toronto semis just this past weekend. Dementieva has exuded strength of mind and body in her game recently best exemplified by winning in Toronto. She is only 30 tour points behind Venus Williams for 3rd on the tour and she is simply not making many mistakes at this point in her career.
Jankovic looked a little wimpy when she fell in Wimbledon's 3rd round but she's looked a lot better in recent weeks. She won in Cincy and she made the quarters of Toronto and her game appears to be coming together nicely. Recent success is one thing you want to look at before making a pick and Jankovic certainly has that in her history.
Venus Williams has not looked great in her last two events. Kateryna Bondarenko (64th at the time) bounced Venus out of Toronto in the second round and Flavia Pennetta of Italy (12th at the time) took out Venus early in Cincy. It is hard to envision Venus winning the US Open and she has not made the final in Flushing Meadows since 2002. Venus Williams is the oldest player in the top 17 at the moment and that means she will be running against a lot of jumpier, twitchier, faster, and younger legs. At +500 (5/1) Venus Williams has been given too much respect and that price isn't touchable.
Dinara Safina might be the most disrespected number 1 player on the women's tour ever. Nobody in the top 10 is really all that scared to play her and she's been tagged as a Grand Slam choker. Top level tennis has enough pressure in it that the last thing you need is some kind of "I can't win the big matches" type of mental block but that's exactly what Safina has and that's why she's not the favorite among favorites despite being world number 1.
Maria Sharapova might be a threat to win the US Open but our recommendation is to avoid her in the futures market. She's good and she takes down top 20 players all the time, but she has not taken out a top 5 player since coming back from surgery. Even her deep runs in Toronto and at the French Open were absent of victories over a top 5 player.
The exclusion of Clijsters from our top 6 and and the addition of Jankovic is fairly straight forward. Clijsters started her comeback in Cincinnati a couple weeks ago and did surprisingly well in advancing to the quarters. Then this week she made the round of 16 in Toronto and received 110 points for her efforts - a ton of points for an unranked player. However a round of 16 exit and a quarterfinal exit are not results you would expect from someone who might win the US Open and Jankovic, who won in Cincy, is superior to Clijsters at this point - probably best highlighted by the fact that Jankovic (+1900 with betfair) beat Clijsters in Toronto.
Our recommendation is to either two-bet with Jankovic and Dementieva or to win or lose with Serena Williams. Between those two choices we would recommend taking Jankovic and Dementieva because their returns on a winning bet make them much more interesting.
Go to Paddy Power or Stan James to bet on US Open futures.
