The pluses and minuses really need to be considered before Nadal is picked as he does have short odds.

The main draw for the 2010 US Open will start on August 30th, just less the 4 weeks away, and Rafael Nadal is the current favorite to win the hard court Slam.  Paddy Power currently have the best price on the Spaniard as he is priced at +275 (11/4) with that site - odds that need to be assessed.

Before the US Open starts there are three key hard court tournaments: ATP Washington is already underway, while the Canadian Masters are next week, and they will be followed by the Cincinnati Masters.

Those tournaments will definitely provide insight as to who is who on tour right now in terms of hard court calibre.

When you look at Nadal, he has been so dominant for the last few months that it is hard to not take his odds of +275.

Nadal won Monte Carlo, he won Rome, he won Madrid, he won the French Open, and then he won Wimbledon.  The only tournament Nadal did not win was London/Queen's Club (l. to F. Lopez) and you have to think that the reason Rafa lost there was because he didn't care about it too much.  Tournaments at the 250 level do not inspire top ranked players all that often.

The argument in favor of picking Nadal is clear as he has won 33 of his last 34 matches and he is the top ranked player in the world.

The argument against Nadal has to do with less recent history, specifically on the hard court.

Nadal has never won the US Open, he has never made the final, and he does not have any active hard court titles.  From 2010 Nadal fell at the Miami Masters (l. to Roddick), he fell at Indian Wells (l. to Ljubicic), he fell at the Aussie (l. to Murray), and he fell at Doha (l. to Davydenko).

Those are the four hard court tournaments that Nadal has contested so far this year and they have all been fruitless in terms of outright championships.

So which streak do you look at?  Nadal's undefeated record in the last 5 tournaments that he has contested and actually cared about (throw out Queen's Club)?  Or do you look at his very real drought of hard court titles that extends back to Indian Wells 2009 (d. Andy Murray)?

There is a genuine dilemma here but the best thing to look at is Nadal's recent form and simply attribute the lack of hard court titles to the injury problems from 2009/early 2010.

Furthermore, with Roger Federer descending in the rankings and with last year's champion, Juan Martin Del Potro, a question mark for the 2010 US Open, this could certainly be Nadal's best chance to complete a career Slam.

Nadal is by no means a lock for the US Open this year and the tournament at Flushing Meadows is certainly a little bit more wide open than it has been in a long time but +275 on Rafa is good to go and he should win in either Toronto or Cincinnati.

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