Two Spaniards collide in what could be a surprisingly tough match for Nadal.

If Rafael Nadal makes the final of the ATP Shanghai Masters it might be because of one thing: luck.  He hasn't been playing like a Masters Series finalist lately and Nadal got a big boost when Ivan Ljubicic had to withdraw from a competitive match in the Shanghai quarters because of a hip injury.  Now Nadal faces his countryman, Feliciano Lopez in the semifinals.

Feliciano Lopez comes into his semifinal match against Rafael Nadal with only one career ATP tour title (he's 28).  Rafael Nadal comes in with 36 at the age of 23.  It doesn't take an tennis expert to realize that Nadal is going to be the heavy favorite in their semifinal match-up at the Shanghai Masters.

Lopez actually has a career win over Nadal but the result is way too old and on the wrong surface to really factor into consideration.  Lopez' victory over Nadal came in 2003 in Basel (carpet) and Nadal has swept their last four meetings ever since.  Not only that, but Nadal has swept, not just matches, but all sets played between the two Spaniards since Basel 2003, an event that was a generation ago in terms of tennis years.

And yet.....

Nadal has really been winning ugly lately and he looks primed to be the victim of a big upset.  He looked like he could have been done in by Ivan Ljubicic yesterday but the Croatian had to withdraw from the match, tied 1 set a piece, because of a hip injury.  That would have lead to a 'push' with most sportsbooks, regardless of who you backed (and you probably should have been backing Ljubicic given what the odds were).

Now Lopez is coming in at long odds fresh off of a straight sets victory over Robin Soderling that denied tennis fans a chance to see Nadal exact some revenge on the Swede for the knockout at the French (Soderling probably would have won again anyways).

So what are you going to do now?  Not bet?  Foolishly, pound Nadal at -1000 (1/10) with bet365 and win some dimes on your dollars?

The only thing that you can do with this match is bet against Nadal and sprinkle Lopez at +600 (6/1).  As sure as Ljubicic had a chance to beat Nadal before injury forced him out, so too does Lopez have a shot to win that's better than the odds suggest.

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