This match has a lot on the line for both players.

Roger Federer faces Nikolay Davydenko on Wednesday from the Australian Open quarterfinal round and this is the type of match where more is on the line than just a place in the next round: career implications are involved.

Davydenko has never taken down a Grand Slam before, nor has he ever advanced to a Grand Slam final.  But if he wins this match against Federer, he will be considered a significant threat for the 2010 Australian Open title.  If he loses this match then the career momentum he built up toward the end of 2009 will hit a clear road block.

Federer has come under criticism in the last several months and many think that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the Swiss Maestro's dominance of men's tennis.  If he loses before making the semis of the Aussie then the criticism will be validated and the road will be open for a new top tennis player (Novak Djokovic).

What makes the match very intriguing is that Davydenko has not been 'business as usual' for Federer lately.  Davydenko, who won the ATP World Tour Title, has a two match winning streak going against Fed and that fact should prevent Federer from getting pounded in this match by bettors.

Here are the odds with bet365:

Federer to win, -275 (4/11)
Davydenko to win, +220 (11/5)

Our recommendation is going to be to tread lightly around this match as you cannot get a clear message about either player.  Davydenko, when he makes it this far in the first place, often falls at this point in Slams as 3 times he has gone out of the Australian Open quarterfinals.

Federer, it cannot be ignored, has trailed off since the summer hard court season.  While he has not played poorly at all at the Aussie this year, his draw has not been challenging either, except for a moderate first round test against Igor Andreev.

When the odds are factored in there are but two options with this match and one looks better than the other.  You can't sprinkle Federer because there's barely any money with a winning bet.  Pounding Federer is the only way to make some coin on this contest if you are going to pick Fed in the first place.

However, that could end up being bankroll draining if Davydenko shows up like he has been lately.

You can't pound Davydenko either out of respect for Federer and so the best option here is just to sprinkle Davydenko.  If he wins, then you top-up nicely at +220 on your bet.  If he loses, then you're only losing a sprinkle.

This isn't the type of match where you really go for gold as the abilities of both players need to be respected but going for a conservative top-up with Daydenko looks like the smartest pick.

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