Roger Federer - bettor's beware.
Roger Federer is the third ranked player in the world and his game appears to be on a sharp decline. Federer backers have been advised to lay off of Federer for about a year now as he has only won two tournaments despite being the first or second favorite in every tournament that he has challenged. If you are backing Federer for Slams still then you would be best to keep your betting to your minimum and to use his longest odds available, which are included below:
2010 US Open: +300 (3/1; Coral)
2011 Australian Open: +250 (5/2; Victor Chandler)
2011 French Open: +600 (6/1; Stan James)
2011 Wimbledon: +350 (7/2; BetFred)
None of these odds have any kind of clear value and if anything, Federer's odds can be expected to drift before any of these events start. Federer backers are therefore advised to wait for longer odds as his current odds can all be judged to be way too short.
These odds are my true odds for Federer:
2010 US Open: +1200
2011 Australian Open: +1400
2011 French Open: +1800
2011 Wimbledon: +800
For the US Open consider one of these four players instead of Federer: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Robin Soderling.
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