Roger Federer cannot regain the top ranking at Flushing Meadows this year.
Rafael Nadal is on top of the tennis rankings and as far as the 2010 US Open goes, Nadal should be staying there even if he crashes out of Flushing Meadows very early. In fact, even if Nadal completely missed the US Open and failed to protect all 720 ranking points he earned last season with his semifinal appearance and even if Roger Federer won the title outright then Nadal would still remain number 1 in the world post-US Open.
There would be a closing in the gap between 1st and 2nd but it wouldn't be completely eliminated although there's plenty of scenarios where second, third, and fourth could change.
These were the quarterfinalists from last season:
- Roger Federer (finalist, 1200 ranking points to defend)
- Robin Soderling (QF, 360 rankings points to defend)
- Novak Djokovic (SF, 720 ranking points to defend)
- Fernando Verdasco (QF, 360 ranking points to defend)
- Fernando Gonzalez (QF, 360 ranking points to defend)
- Rafael Nadal (SF, 720 ranking points to defend)
- Juan Martin Del Potro (Winner, 2000 ranking points to defend)*
- Marin Cilic (QF, 360 ranking points to defend)
*Juan Martin Del Potro will not be in the draw
Verdasco, Gonzalez, and Cilic may also be taking hits this year as not one of those players really looks like a threat to repeat their result from last season. Gonzalez is already down to 29th on tour and he has been injury prone lately. An early exit at Flushing Meadows and Forehando may be out of the top 40.
According to betting odds these are the top 8 favorites for the 2010 US Open:
1. Federer, +275 (11/4) Coral
2. Nadal, +333 (10/3) SportingBet
3. Andy Murray, +375 (15/4) Bwin
4. Novak Djokovic, +1400 (14/1) Boylesports
5. Robin Soderling, +2000 (20/1) SportingBet
6. Andy Roddick, +2000 (20/1) SportingBet
7. Tomas Berdych, +2500 (25/1) SportingBet
8. David Nalbandian, +2500 (25/1) Paddy Power
Nadal is the most over-rated player in this market as he is not the 2nd best hard courter in the world. If he was he would have a hard court title active in his current ranking points as it has been over a year since he returned from injury. Nadal might be considered 4th favorite or 5th favorite and these are my true favorites at this point:
1. Murray
2. Federer
3. Djokovic
4. Nadal
5. Nalbandian
6. Tomas Berdych
7. Mardy Fish (+6600 with SportingBet)
8. Marcos Baghdatis (+8000 with bet365)
Roddick and Soderling have not been turning in good enough results lately and they are at risk of taking early exits. Soderling was weak in both hard court Masters tournaments these past two weeks while Roddick, despite making the semis in Cincy, hasn't shown that great of form for several months now and I think his win over Djokovic recently was just due to the fact that the Serbian had been playing tons of matches in a short time period and Roddick was relatively fresh.
There are scenarios at the 2010 US open where Murray would overtake the number 2 spot. Murray, currently 4th, only made the 4th round last year (l. to Cilic) and he only earned 180 ranking points as a result. If he wins the title he will gain 1820 ranking points and if Federer were to lose before the final he would lose at least 480 ranking points.
Those two conditions, Federer losing before the final and Murray winning the title outright could lead to Murray becoming the world number 2.
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