Spain's Rafael Nadal, a 4 time French Open champion, leads the market but Swiss star Roger Federer is a close second.
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The 2010 French Open will be played between May 24th and June 7th at Roland Garros in Paris, France.
Last year Roger Federer completed his career Slam as he took down his maiden French Open title and currently the Swiss Maestro is the second favorite to win this year's title at Roland Garros. Here are the odds for current favorites followed by our assessment of where the best value betting is:
1. Rafael Nadal, -120 (5/6), William Hill
2. Roger Federer, +275 (11/4), Paddy Power
3. Juan Martin Del Potro, +600 (6/1), Paddy Power
4. Novak Djokovic, +850 (17/2), Coral
5. Andrew Murray, +1400 (14/1), Paddy Power
6. Nikolay Davydenko, +2500 (25/1) Paddy Power
7. Fernando Verdasco, +4000 (40/1), Paddy Power
8. Robin Soderling, +5000 (50/1), William Hill
9. Gaels Monfils, +5000 (50/1), Coral
10. David Nalbandian, +6600 (66/1), bet365
11. Marin Cilic, +6600 (66/1), Boylesports
12. Fernando Gonzalez, +8000 (80/1), bet365
13. Thomaz Bellucci, +10000 (100/1), William Hill
14. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, +10000 (100/1), William Hill
15. David Ferrer, +10000 (100/1), William Hill
16. Juan Carlos Ferrero, +15000 (150/1), Boylesports
The top 3 favorites in this market have odds that all must be considered too short.
Rafael Nadal has not been on Grand Slam winning form for nearly a year now and if you are thinking of backing the Spaniard at -120 (5/6) you need to reconsider: +400 (4/1) might be a good price but -120 (5/6) is bad gambling. If you are going to pound half of your bankroll on the Spaniard, you might actually be smarter playing a roulette table, blackjack, or calling an all-in play with a 5-high flush draw at the poker table instead. While clay is his best surface keep in mind that all the problems with Nadal in the last 10-11 months, a period where he has not won a title, started with a 4th round loss at Roland Garros last year.
-120 is a terrible price and, if Nadal does advance deep into the draw, you might get similar odds as late as late the 4th round anyways so there's no need to be in a rush to back the Spaniard on the wrong side of EVEN right now. Look for Nadal to lose in the quarters or semis in Paris and don't be surprised if he reaches over the net to shakes hand after he goes down a break already down two sets.
For Roger Federer you also need odds of about +400 (4/1) to make a good pick as he has been struggling lately as well. You can, however, feel much more comfortable with Federer compared to Nadal because Federer's poor play has been restricted to non-Slam events. In Slams, he has made all 4 of the finals in the last year and he has taken down 3 of those finals.
Regarding Del Potro, there's no reason why he shouldn't be well on his way to becoming the new world number 1 player as soon as he's back to 100%. He's better than Murray, Djokovic, and Cilic and he showed the world that he had what it took to win Slams when he beat Roger Fededer in the US Open final. However Del Potro has not won a title since winning in Flushing Meadows and while injury has played a role in his drought his motivation is also questionable although maybe being less than 100% has something to do with that as well. If he shows a head of steam during the tournaments that lead up to the French Open, take +600 (6/1) on this immense talent without delay but for now, avoid him.
You could entertain picking Djokovic because he is at +850 (17/2) and he has gone deep at the French Open before. But then he hasn't looked good lately falling to inferior players in both Miami and Indian Wells. As far as clay goes, last year he fell early to Kohlschreiber at the French Open and he certainly seems risky to bet this year. However his long odds certainly redeem some of that risk and he isn't a terrible pick at his current price as you can't think a cold streak will continue too long for the second ranked player in the world, a proven Slam winner (Australian Open 2008).
Andrew Murray could fall on clay to any of the players mentioned in the odds-list above as his best Slams are typically the hard court Slams and Wimbledon. Last year, for example, Fernando Gonzalez was able to eliminate Murray in the quarters in what might otherwise have been a pretty reasonable draw to the finals for the Scot. Again there is redemption with his price at +1400 (14/1) but Murray's focus might actually be on Wimbledon, where he's currently the second favorite (+450, 9/2; Coral).
Nikolay Davydenko has wrist problems and he's in his late 20s now. We already know what we need to know about this player: he's an underachiever in Slams who has burned his backers enough times for us to know that you'd sooner touch a hot stove than his odds at +2500 (25/1).
Robin Soderling certainly has odds that can be accepted at +5000 (50/1) as he made the finals last year. However you can't get bet everyone that has slight value or else the profits from your winning pick will be minimized too much by your losing sprinkles. Soderling has no killer instinct in the late rounds of tournaments as he's always puttering out in the semis or quarters, it seems. He can be bet very lightly but you could just as easily avoid him too.
After Soderling you have to like the odds on Marin Cilic, Fernando Gonzalez, Thomaz Bellucci, David Ferrer, and Juan Carlos Ferrero. With Nadal struggling and Federer aging (he'll be 29 later this year, that's old enough for a tennis player) the 2010 French Open feels much more wide open this year than it has in past years. A longshot could push through in Paris and it would even be refreshing in a way.
If you had 35 'units' to bet, instead of putting them on Federer or Nadal, you should spread them across 4, 5 or even 6 of the longer priced players.
My recommended bets are as follows:
Marin Cilic +6600 (66/1): bet 10 units
Reason: he's been improving in Slams over the last year (Aussie Open semifinalist 2010), as a top 10 player he's likely to have a high seed, and he's a potential future number 1 player.
Thomaz Bellucci +10000 (100/1): bet 5 units
Reason: he won a clay court title this year (ATP Santiago), he's up and coming, and his odds are so long that hardly any risk is required to make things interesting.
David Ferrer +10000 (100/1): bet 5 units
Reason: he won a clay court title this year (ATP Acapulco), he made another clay court final (ATP Buenos Aires, l. to Ferrero), and his odds are so long that hardly any risk is required to make things interesting.
Juan Carlos Ferrero +15000 (150/1): bet 5 units
Reason: he has won 2 clay court titles this year (ATP Bueno Aires; ATP Costa Do Sauipe), he has made another clay court final (ATP Acapulco, l. to Ferrer), his odds are so long that hardly any risk is required to make things interesting, and he's won the French Open before (2003; finalist 2002).
All of these players are strong candidates for at least the fourth round of the French Open this year, including Bellucci provided that he keeps his ranking high enough to get seeded. Don't pound anyone at this point so that you can keep an eye on the action leading up to the French and then spot the player who is below the radar. Hopefully Del Potro wants it as he's a great player to pound at +600 (6/1) provided he has the same fire that he had during last summer's hard court season.
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