Federer may be the favorite in the futures market, but other players hae better value.

The last week of tennis was very informative.  As suspected by many Novak Djokovic may be emerging as the leading contender for the world number 1 ranking.  He defeated Roger Federer for the ATP Basel title and over in Valencia, Andy Murray took down the other 500 level title of the week.

Here are the favorites for the men's draw and their best prices followed by our recommendation(s):

1.  Roger Federer, +250 (5/2), Stan James
2.  Andy Murray, +500 (5/1), Blue Square
3.  Novak Djokovic, +600 (6/1), Blue Square
4.  Rafael Nadal, +700 (7/1), Blue Square
5.  Juan Martin Del Potro, +1200 (12/1), Boylesports
6.  Jo Wilfried Tsonga, +2000 (20/1), Boylesports
7.  Nikolay Davydenko, +2000 (20/1), Boylesports
8.  Robin Soderling, +2500 (25/1), Sportingbet
9.  Fernando Verdasco, +4000 (40/1), Sportingbet
10. Marin Cilic, +4000 (40/1) Sportingbet

One simple fact needs to be observed from the onset: Roger Federer is not the correct pick to make here.  He didn't win the US Open in September for the first time in a long time and he didn't win in Basel this past weekend either.  The field has gained on Federer since his victory at Wimbledon and he and Nadal no longer have ATP men's singles tennis crushed like they used to.

The prices with Murray and Djokovic are both attractive with Blue Square.  Those are the two players that won the two 500 level events this past weekend although Murray never had to play anyone better than Verdasco.

There is also value from the list above with Nikolay Davydenko and Marin Cilic.  Davydenko won the last 1000 series event in Shanghai while Cilic has been coming on of late and priced at +4000 (40/1) you have got to like the price for the emerging star.

Taking the draw into consideration both Del Potro and Gonzalez have tricky anticipated second round matches.  Del Potro looks like he will play Marat Safin who has really put a ton of pride into his game lately as he approaches retirement.  Gonzalez may have to square off against tough serving John Isner, the player that just knocked Gonzalez out of the first round in Basel a few days ago.

Murray's draw looks clear as he will face either James Blake or Fabrice Santoro in the second round (Murray has a bye through the first round).   Radek Stepanek is the anticipated 3rd round opponent for Murray but he, Stepanek, never seems to win big matches despite playing in tons of them.  Murray's draw looks good to the semis and his superior conditioning should keep his legs fresh despite going the distance in Valencia.

Djokovic has Davydenko to contend with for the semis, a player who has been winning a lot of big matches lately.  That anticipated match is a bit of a hang up for both players which makes Murray the best pick to make in this event.  Murray has a winning record against Federer should they meet in the semifinals.

However the odds on Murray and a couple other players are long enough that you can actually three bet this event and still take away a good payday with a winning event.  Our recommendations are to take whatever amount you are betting allocate it as follows:  Murray 40%, Djokovic 40%, and Davydenko 20%.

With that you should have one or two players at long odds deep into the draw and with a good chance to cash in.

Go to Blue Square or Boylesports to bet on ATP tennis.