Federer is coming in as the favorite but does his record in the last year of tournaments at the Master Series 1000 level justify his odds?

The BNP Paribas Open is already underway with qualifying matches taking place at the Indian Wells Tennis Center in California.  Roger Federer, the number 1 ranked player in the world, has been designated the top seed in the tournament and his odds in the outright winner's market are +225 (9/4; bet365).

While Federer did win Cincinnati and Madrid in 2009, other Masters Series 1000 events, he did not fair well enough last year overall at this level to justify betting him at such short odds.  Take a look at these other results in Masters Series 1000 events from 2009:

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome: Semifinals
ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami: Semifinals
ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Indian Wells: Semifinals
ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Canada: Quarterfinals
ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Monte Carlo: Round of 16
ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Paris: Round of 32

Roger Federer, like Serena Williams on the women's side, plays his best tennis at the Grand Slams.  He is not as motivated going into the Masters Series 1000 events as he is when he plays a major and the most obvious reason for that has to do with the relative prestige of the events.  Winning Slams is what adds prestige to a player's legacy - winning Masters Series 1000 events does not.

When Fed won in Cincinnati last year against Novak Djokovic in the final there was hardly a celebration as he kind of just pumped his fist.

Win or lose in Indian Wells, do not expect a ton of emotion out of Federer and, while you should be betting him at +250 (5/2) with Ladbrokes to win the French Open, avoid Fed at Indian Wells and go with Andy Murray instead (+350, 7/2; bet365).

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