Even if Roger Federer looks weak heading into a Slam, he's going to up his game.

Roger Federer did not look great in the MONTHS leading up the Australian Open.

Heading into Melbourne, Federer had not won a title since Cincinnati back in August.  He had been the favorite in every single tournament he had entered since that time but had failed to close out even just one finals victory.  Federer fell in Basel, in London, in Paris, and in Doha even though he was the pre-tournament favorite for all of those events.

Since winning his last title in Cincy, Fed had surrendered first time losses to Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling (exhibition play), Juan Martin Del Potro, and Julien Benneteau and that made his pre-Australian Open odds of about +300 questionable.

However, despite inferior play leading up to the Australian Open, Federer won the Aussie and he did so by defeating Murray in the final, who many felt would win his first Grand Slam title down-under. 

Tip: throw short-term form out the window with Federer because when push comes to shove in Grand Slams, he'll be there.

Recommendation: take Federer's odds to win the French Open which are currently +250 (5/2) with Ladbrokes.