Will he be ranked number 1 when the 2010 ATP season concludes?

Roger Federer is on top of the futures market with Sky Bet to be ranked number 1 at the end of the 2010 ATP season.  That status is no doubt partly a reflection of his success at the 2010 Australian Open and his current #1 ranking.

Federer, who is the favorite to win Wimbledon (+137 Ladbrokes) and the US Open (+225 Sky Bet) this year, is priced at -200 (1/2; Sky Bet) against the field to be the top ranked player at year's end.  While Rafael Nadal is favored to win the French Open (-110, 10/11; Paddy Power), Federer is the second favorite at this point (+250 Ladbrokes), and perhaps he is a little underrated at that.

Here is a complete list of the odds for the players that we think should be taken seriously for the 2010 world number 1 year end ranking (all Sky Bet odds):

1.  Roger Federer, -200 (1/2)
2.  Rafael Nadal, +400 (4/1)
3.  Andy Murray, +500 (5/1)
4.  Novak Djokovic, +650 (13/2)
5.  Juan Martin Del Potro, +1000 (10/1)
6.  Marin Cilic, +3300 (33/1)

Federer already has the Australian Open in his back pocket and the 2000 accompanying ranking points for taking the title down.  He also has about a 3000 point lead (at least) on those that are chasing him in the ranks but there are a ton of events remaining in the 2010 season and tons of opportunities to chip away at that lead. 

If you are going to bet this proposition then take Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic as those are the two main threats to Federer on tour at the moment. 

Rafael Nadal's price of +400 might be tempting but he is far too injury prone at this point in his career to be bet in this proposition and he could find himself out of the top 5 before season's end.  He obviously has the potential to be the world number 1 player, as he was the best just 1 year ago, however you need longer odds than what he is currently priced at to risk betting him.

Juan Martin Del Potro has been kind of laid back on tour since winning the US Open and he tanked it at the Aussie earlier this year.  He missed a golden opportunity to really charge for the top and a fourth round exit in a Slam really hurts his chances of being ranked number 1 at season's end.  Keep in mind that his 2000 ranking points for winning the 2009 US Open are going to drop off before season's end unless they are defended with a 2010 US Open repeat championship (+350 Paddy Power), something that seems unlikely.

Marin Cilic's odds also have value and you may wish to take a little off of Murray and Djokovic so that Cilic's long odds can be sprinkled as well.  However you can't bet all lines that have some value or else you start to stretch your winnings thin.  Cilic may occupy the top spot in the world at some point in his career but chances are it won't be this year or at the season's end.

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