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Roger Federer Betting Futures for Wimbledon

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Shane Lambert - 2 Mar 2010

Article examines the favorites for Wimbledon 2010 and highlights where the value is....and where it's not.

Roger Federer is the odds on favorite to win Wimbledon, yet again, in 2010.  He is the defending champion from 2009 and on top of that he has five additional Wimbledon single's titles for a grand total of 6 titles from the All England Club. 

While the French Open takes place before Wimbledon, the two Slams go bang-bang in May and June and we're already in March, so now is not a bad time to look at the market to see whose odds might be a little bit long for the grass court Slam.  Betting early can help you get great value and as long as you don't commit yourself you can still keep your options open for later.

Here are the players who are expected to be key at Wimbledon this year along with their odds and implied probabilities (their percentage chances of winning the event based on their odds; non-scientific):

1.  Roger Federer, +137 (27/20; bet365); 42.19%
2.  Andy Murray, +400 (4/1; Boylesports); 20.00%
3.  Rafael Nadal, +550 (11/2; Boylesports); 15.38%
4.  Juan Martin Del Potro, +900 (9/1; SkyBet); 10.00%
5.  Novak Djokovic, +1200 (12/1; Sportingbet); 7.69%
6.  Andy Roddick, +1600 (16/1; Sportingbet); 5.88%
7.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, +3300 (33/1; Stan James); 2.94%
8.  Marin Cilic, +3300 (33/1; bet365); 2.94%

Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro, Novak Djokovic, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should all be struck off the list right away as candidates to bet at this point as their odds are not providing value. 

Tsonga is not close to winning a Grand Slam as his hopeless effort against Federer at the Australian Open semis clearly proved. 

Nadal is too injury prone to bet on in the futures market and he can't beat the best players consistently enough anymore to risk backing. 

Del Potro's motivation is questionable but besides that he fell in the second round at the All England club last year and, unlike every other Slam, he hasn't made a deep run at Wimbledon yet. 

You might like Djokovic if he was a little longer than +1200 (12/1) but he's not and he's fallen to a couple non-Slam threats in the last two years at Wimbledon (T. Haas in 2009, M. Safin in 2008).

Marin Cilic can be bet because he is young and blossoming.  Priced at +3300, that means you don't have to risk hardly anything to line up a potential big reward. 

Andy Roddick at +1600 is also priced to be picked as the three time Wimbledon finalist, which includes a finals appearance from last year, knows how to win matches on grass and he is always dangerous at Wimbledon despite never winning.

Of course Federer is the favorite for a reason but his value, with such short odds, is tough to assess.  There is probably minimal value with his price of +137 as his true odds might be more like +115.  Having him in your futures list will certainly keep you involved in the tournament as he can be counted on for a deep run to say the least.

Andy Murray at +400 with Boylesports might be the best bet to make at this point.  He's fresh off another Slam final having lost the 2010 Australian Open to Federer.  Despite the loss Murray seemed to click in the third set of the final and he probably grew a ton with the loss from a mental perspective as he did win numerous clutch points during that third set. 

That proved that he was capable of winning huge points at the finals of a Grand Slam and the next time Murray sees Federer late in a draw of a major, don't expect the Scot to get off to a slow start.

Since we are so far out from Wimbledon you still have plenty of options at this point but keep the betting to sprinkles for now, with the pounding to come later when we have more information leading up to Wimbledon. Either go with Federer against the field or two-bet the futures market against him with Murray and Roddick or Cilic.

Register with bet365 to bet on Wimbledon futures and take full advantage of their 100% deposit bonus to earn up to $200 in free bets.  bet365 also have fantastic sports services including scoreboard updates and live streaming of many different sporting events (last year they streamed Wimbledon online).




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