The quarterfinals are set and here's a look at the updated odds that place Federer as a favorite.

Roger Federer has been on top of the Australian Open futures market since at least the end of the 2009 US Open.  He's still sitting at the top although his quarterfinal match against Nikolay Davydenko represents a major threat.

Here are the updated odds in the futures market for all the quarterfinalists to win the Australian Open outright.

1.  Roger Federer, +187 (about 19/10), Sportingbet
2.  Andy Murray, +400 (4/1), Sky Bet
3.  Rafael Nadal, +500 (5/1), Sportingbet
4.  Novak Djokovic, +700 (7/1), Boylesports
5.  Nikolay Davydenko, +800 (8/1), Boylesports
6.  Andy Roddick, +1800 (18/1), Boylesports
7.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, +2500 (25/1), Boylesports
8.  Marin Cilic, +2500 (25/1), Boylesports

It certainly has to be said that Federer has looked the best since the end of round 1 where he struggled a little bit with Igor Andreev. 

Also, Federer and Djokovic should be the two players who are the freshest heading into their quarterfinal matches, as they are the two players that have had the most efficient matches in recent rounds.

However, are Federer's odds actually valuable given that the talent in the quarters is absolutely stacked? 

The implied probability on Fed's odds is 34.84%, meaning that if you take his odds of +187, then you have to do so believing he has a better chance of winning the 2010 Australian Open than that implied probability suggests.

Even if you have Federer as a -200 favorite against Davydenko, more or less the same against Tsonga or Djokovic, and then similar odds to win the final straight up, all three events have some risk involved.  Federer should be on top of this market but the competing talent for the title is so strong that  Federer's odds just aren't that valuable and have to be deemed too short to call.

You are much better off betting Murray or Djokovic at this point.  The risk is greater but the payoff is much better as well and that justifies the risk.

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