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Roger Federer Australian Open Draw

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Shane Lambert - 15 Jan 2010

Fed could have hoped for a better first round draw, but after that it's pretty smooth through the early rounds.

While Roger Federer is more upset prone now than he has ever been he has to be pleased with his overall draw although the first round might be just a little bit of a hang-up.

Here is Federer's draw to the quarterfinals (for matches after the first round, I will go by seeding/ATP ranking or my gut instinct to determine Fed's likely opponent).

1st round: Roger Federer vs Igor Andreev

Both Roger Federer and Igor Andreev have gotten really unlucky with this matchup.  Andreev's bad luck is obvious as he draws the number 1 player in the world but Fed's bad luck is there as well.

Andreev is the 36th ranked player in the world, meaning he just missed out of a seed by a handful of ranking points. 

In a 128 player tournament when you are the top seed, you do not generally want to play the 36th best player in the world in the first round.

The luck goes around and comes around in tennis draws.

Federer is undefeated against Andreev (2-0) but Andreev is notable for being one of the few players to push Fed to 5 sets at the US Open between 2004 and 2008.

Tricky match for Federer but he's too smart to take his opponent lightly.  Look for value on Andreev when the title wave of betting lines come out with bet365.

2nd Round: Roger Federer vs Victor Hanescu

Thanks to the wonders and genius of Grand Slam seeding, if Federer survives his tricky first round match, he will likely draw Victor Hanescu, a player who is ranked 47th in the world.

Federer is 3-0 in matches against Hanescu and 8-0 in sets played (all results clay, however) and Federer will probably come into his second round match as a -2000 (1/2000) favorite or shorter, especially if Hanescu gets upended by Chela in the first round.

Of note, Hanescu has not made it past the 2nd round of the Australian Open in 6 trips to Melbourne.

3rd Round: Roger Federer vs Albert Montanes

Here's some in-depth analysis: Montanes is 1-8 at the Australian Open over his career and he is 0-2 heads up against Federer. 

Next.

4th Round: Roger Federer vs Lleyton Hewitt

Lleyton Hewitt and Gilles Simon are seeded to clash in the third round and Hewitt, who resurged up the rankings in the latter half of 2009, would probably be a favorite in that match. 

Simon was top 10 a few months ago but he has faltered a little bit since then and dropped down to 15th.

Federer would actually do better if he was facing Hewitt, as Federer has never beaten Simon in two career matches.

Hewitt, on the other hand, hasn't beaten Federer since 2003 and it's not like they haven't had that many matches against one another since that time (14).

Quarters: by seeding, Federer would play Davydenko but there's no point in looking that far ahead at this time as the draw, as always, could produce some tough to foresee surprises.

Federer's hopes of winning the Australian Open are partly routed in his ability to be efficient in the first four rounds and to arrive in the quarters fresh.  His current price with bet365 to win the entire tournament is +250 (5/2).

bet365 will be providing live streaming of the Australian Open.

Register with bet365 to watch the matches from your laptop and to bet on the Australian Open.




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