The 2010 US Open title should belong to Andy Murray.

Roger Federer is considered to be the outright favorite for the 2010 US Open as Coral, as one example, have Fed at +200 (2/1) in the outright winner's market. 

Federer has a recent title from the Cincinnati Masters and that clearly has won him some support over Rafael Nadal but Federer also lost his most recent match to Andy Murray and that loss should not be ignored.

Murray won ATP Toronto and that title should be considered more prestigious than Federer's title in Cincinnati.  In Toronto, all the key players were entering the field fresh and well rested but in Cincinnati, the players who made deep runs in Toronto were fatigued.

Murray wasn't at his very best in Cincinnati precisely because he was coming off of back to back matches against Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer while his early round opponents in Cincinnati were relatively well rested and therefore had an edge.

When you look at what Federer did in Cincinnati, you can actually be critical of him still.

Federer's Cincinnati title had a touch of luck mixed in as Federer had no opposition in the first three rounds of that tournament - literally.  While he earned a bye on his own merits through his high ranking, Federer received a win via retirement in the second round, and he won via a walkover in the third round.  If Murray had received three rounds of rest as opposed to just one, then there would have been no stopping him from winning the title in Cincinnati.

As a five time champion, Federer is a clear force and he's better than 126 other players in the field.  But just like last year, when I tipped Juan Martin Del Potro to win the title pre-tournament to a chorus of booing Federer fans, once again the true favorite is not the betting favorite.

Federer's slams are now behind him and smart money should be on Andy Murray at +350 (7/2) with Bodog - MAXIMUMBONUS is your promo code for a free bet that can be used on the men's final.