Old habits are dying hard as Nadal is still getting pounded for the French despite not showing signs of being able to take it down.

Rafael Nadal, popular as he is, has the shortest odds to win the 2010 French Open as his backers must be having trouble breaking the habit of betting him in the futures market.

Rafael Nadal, following his exit to Ivan Ljubicic in Indian Wells, now has SHORTER odds to win the French Open than he had before Indian Wells began.  A short time ago Nadal was -110 (10/11) with Stan James in the outright winner's market at Roland Garros and now you'll have to fish around hard to find odds that good.

At the moment the best price we found on Nadal was -125 (4/5) with bet365 with the shorter odds being with Ladbrokes at -150 (2/3).

Does this betting trend make any sense?  Nadal, who hasn't won a title in ages, should have his odds shorten to win a Slam following a loss to a player ranked outside of the top 20? 

The fact that the loss to Ljubicic in Indian Wells was on hard court while the French is on clay is a MAJOR point to acknowledge but Nadal backers need to acknowledge this: Nadal lost in the round of 16 last year in Paris.

It doesn't matter if he won the title before that loss 4 times, all of the problems that he has been having on the tennis court started with his loss to Robin Soderling last year and that is who Nadal is right now, he's the guy who can't beat Robin Soderling on clay.

Nadal would look great at +375 (15/4) in the outright market but -150 in a 7 round tournament?  Haven't you noticed that Nadal is injury prone?  Are you sure your sportsbook will refund your bet if Nadal gets a boo-boo?

Put your money elsewhere at this time and here are some players to consider who have noteworthy clay court achievements and, importantly, longer odds:

Fernando Gonzalez, semifinalist 2009: +4000, 40/1 with Paddy Power
Gael Monfils, semifinalist 2008, quarterfinalist 2009: +5000, 50/1 with Paddy Power
Robin Soderling, finalist 2009: +5000, 50/1 with Blue Square
Roger Federer, defending champion, multiple finals: +250, 5/2 with Paddy Power
Juan Martin Del Potro, semifinalist 2009: +500, 5/1 with Blue Square

While someone might retort that Nadal did better in Indian Wells than Federer you know Fed is going to play well in a Slam, even if he doesn't look good leading up to the event because he has been like that in the past.

Federer is our recommendation at this point though only sprinkles are recommended this far out so that you can rescue your bet with a counter-bet should the original play start to go south.

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