Novak Djokovic may be the new world number one but Rafael Nadal can confirm his superiority over the Serb with a win in the final of Wimbledon on Sunday.
Novak Djokovic has been the most consistent player on the ATP Tour in 2011 and he is fully deserving of his spot at the top of the world rankings, due to the fact that he has won the Australian Open and every Masters event which he has entered. He is not, however, a better tennis player than Rafael Nadal in Grand Slams events.
Nadal is a proven champion, who has won ten Grand Slam titles already in his career and the Spaniard looks almost certain to go on and break Roger Federer's record of sixteen career wins as, quite simply, he is unstoppable over five sets. In the last two years, the 25-year-old has lost two matches in Grand Slam events, both coming at the Australian Open and both were due to injury. A fit Nadal has claimed the titles in four of the last five majors, beating four different opponents in the final; Roger Federer, Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic. Between them the four players managed to win just two sets.
Djokovic will have another crack at beating the man who he is replacing as world number one next week and he comes into the match in the best form of his life. The Serb lost to an inspired Roger Federer in the semi finals at Roland Garros but that is his only defeat in 2011. His incredible unbeaten run of 41 matches at the start of the year in unlikely to be bettered in the foreseeable future.
Djokovic is fast becoming the most consistent player on the ATP Tour and his dramatic improvements are down to a better support team, improved fitness levels and a new diet. This has seen his speed and agility increase dramatically. He is not, however, completely assured and his serve is definitely not as strong as that of Federer or even Andy Murray. Against most players Djokovic's rallying abilities are good enough to avoid being broken but Nadal is not like most players.
Rafa is simply relentless. He doesn't make mistakes. Against Murray, on Friday, he made just eight unforced errors in four sets of tennis and he offered no opportunities to the fourth seed. His intensity caused the British number one to push too hard and that resulted in mistakes, which were pounced upon in ruthless fashion.
He may have lost his last four matches to Djokovic but the top seed at Wimbledon is at his best in five set encounters and it is telling that he is 5-0 ahead of his rival in Grand Slam events and won the pair's only Davis Cup meeting (which also uses best of five format). The longer matches suit Nadal's style of play and he has an incredibly rare ability of being able to play at maximum intensity for several hours at a time.
The Spaniard also hold a psychological advantage over Djokovic at Wimbledon. At 25, Nadal is playing in his fifth consecutive Wimbledon final (he missed the 2009 tournament due to injury) and Centre Court has become a third home to him (after Majorca and Roland Garros). He lost his first two finals to Roger Federer but after working on his game, he came back and beat the Swiss and is now on a run of 20 matches without losing at the All England Club.
By contrast, Djokovic, aged 24, has never played in a Wimbledon final, nor has he ever won a title on grass. He knows that the green turf is his worst surface and he is less confident on grass than on any other court. It is also the only surface which he has not beaten Nadal on.
The bookmakers make Nadal the odds on favourite, with
William Hill offering a stand-out 4/6 that he wins on Sunday. That price looks generous and perhaps does not adequately show the difference in ability between the two players in Grand Slam tennis and while Djokovic should be respected, he has to be opposed at a best price of 7/5 (
Boylesports).
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