Karlovic makes a rare appearance in the 4th round.

Ivo Karlovic, some may be surprised to learn, has only made the 4th round of three Slams in his career.  He made the 4th round of Wimbledon in 2004, he made the quarters of Wimbledon just this past summer, and now he is into the fourth round at the 2010 Australian Open.

In that 4th round match Nadal is a big favorite as bet365 have him priced at -1000 to win (1/10; you can get -700 at Coral or Paddy Power).

While some may be tempted to bet Karlovic in this match because of his long odds (+550, 11/2) and his huge serve but you need to take a careful look at Karlovic to see if that risk is worth it. 

The last time we saw Karlovic do some damage in a Slam was when he made the quarters of Wimbledon just this past summer.  He was acing his way through everyone, including Fernando Verdasco, and then he finally ran into Roger Federer and whimpered out in straight sets.

Nadal and Federer are of similar calibre and they aren't the type of players that you can normally beat with a one trick act, like big serving, and so Nadal looks good against Karlovic here, although there is a significant point of contention. 

The trouble with this match is that you can't really pound Nadal because he has struggled a little bit with Karlovic head to head.  They have only played each other twice, with Nadal winning both matches, but almost all of the sets they have played in have been very close.

At Queen's Club in London on grass a couple years ago they played a 3 set affair and all of them went to tiebreaks at 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-6(4), a result that ended in Nadal's favor.

Years before that they played on carpet in Italy and Nadal won 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-1 with the final set being the only set between the two that wasn't competitive.

With this match, Nadal's price of -700 appears to be too risky to bet while Karlovic's +550 (11/2) probably only has a little bit of value.

The best betting angle on this match may be to use a proposition with bet365.  The most common score in a set between these two players in their history has been 7-6.  With bet365 the odds on the first set being 7-6 in favor of Nadal are +300 while the odds on the first being 7-6 in favor of Karlovic are +600.

Those odds are long enough to bet both of those lines and that is our recommendation for this match.

You can watch Nadal v Karlovic live for free on bet365. To watch, simply follow these 3 simple steps:
 
1. Go to bet365 and sign-up or register (it's free)
2. Click on Sports > Live Streaming > Tennis
3. Watch Nadal v Karlovic for free