Rafael Nadal has never won the US Open but he's close to completing a career Grand Slam.

Rafael Nadal, largely thanks to Andy Murray's loss in the third round, is once again the favorite to win the 2010 US Open.  Nadal was the favorite prior to ATP Toronto and ATP Cincinnati but the results there changed things around and Nadal drifted out to third favorite.  But with Murray out and with Nadal only having to deal with Mikhail Youzhny in the semifinal while Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have to duke it out, the world number 1 has won favor with punters and oddmakers once again.

Here are the odds for the 4 remaining players to win outright:

1. Rafael Nadal +105 (21/20) BoyleSports
2. Roger Federer +137 (about 7/5) Ladbrokes
3. Novak Djokovic +900 (9/1) BoyleSports
4. Mikhail Youzhny +5400 (54/1) Bwin

Here are my true odds for the remaining 4 players in the draw in terms of percentages:

Rafael Nadal - 53% chance to win
Roger Federer - 30% chance to win
Novak Djokovic - 13% chance to win
Mikhail Youzhny - 4% chance to win 

The value at this point is to oppose Federer as going through Djokovic and Nadal is a lot tougher than +137 implies.

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