The start of the 2010 French Open is less than a week away.
The 2010 French Open will take place from Paris, France at the Roland Garros tennis center and it starts on May 23rd.
It is the second Grand Slam of tennis in the calendar year but the only one that is played on clay.
As a clay court event many players who are adept at hard court tennis or grass are not considered to be serious factors to win the French Open. Here is a look at the 10 favorites on the men's side along with their odds and an explanation as to why each player is considered a favorite. Finally recommended bets our made.
Favorite: Rafael Nadal of Spain (-250, 2/5; William Hill)
Rafael Nadal has had a fantastic year on clay as he has taken down three consecutive clay court Masters titles (Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid). His success at the French Open hardly requires comment as he has won the event 4 times (2005-08) and has only suffered one defeat at the Paris Slam (l. to Soderling R16 2009). He is an unambiguous favorite whose odds, though well shorter than EVEN can still be expected to shorten a little.
2nd favorite: Roger Federer of Switzerland (+350, 7/2; bet365)
Roger Federer was drifting in the futures market for the 2010 French Open up until his finals appearance in Madrid (l. to Nadal). Recent losses on clay to Ernests Gulbis and Albert Montanes had made some skeptical of Federer's form. However he appears to be poised to make a deep run at Roland Garros although it is difficult to see him defeating Nadal should they meet.
Federer is the top ranked player on tour although there are French Open scenarios that would see Nadal retake top spot. As the defending champion from last year Federer must be considered a favorite and regardless of short term form he appears to elevate his tennis in Grand Slams. Roger Federer has made 4 French Open finals but only won one of them (2009 d. Soderling).
Federer is the current holder of 3 Slams however and can never be counted out as no one has taken down more Grand Slams, careerwise, than Fed.
3rd favorite: Novak Djokovic of Serbia (+1800, 18/1; Paddy Power)
Novak Djokovic has made the semifinals of the French Open on two occasions (2007, 2008) and as a top 5 player on tour, he is dangerous. However he has not had a good clay court season as he lost early in Monte Carlo, Rome, and lost via retirement in Belgrade. This is a tough player to back with any kind of confidence at the moment and his odds of +1800 reflect that. He is a proven Slam winner however as he won the 2008 Australian Open.
4th favorites (tied): Ernests Gulbis and Fernando Verdasco (both +2500, 25/1; Ladbrokes)
Ernests Gulbis has had a very good clay court season and he is just 21 years old. Gulbis is ranked 27th on tour but his short term form on clay and the fact that he has a noteworthy historical result from the French Open makes him tied for the 4th favorite position. Gulbis made the quarters of the 2008 French Open when he was 19 and in the short term he has some solid match wins as he has recent victories over Roger Federer and Marcos Baghdatis. Gulbis is only one of two players this clay court season to take a set off of Nadal and that has turned some heads.
Fernando Verdasco made the finals in Monte Carlo in April and then he proceeded to win Barcelona with impressive wins over Gulbis, David Ferrer, and Robin Soderling. He also went deep in Rome with a win over Djokovic and can be fully expected to do some damage at the French Open.
6th favorite: Andrew Murray +3000 (30/1; Paddy Power)
Andy Murray is a good clay courter as he made the French Open quarterfinals last year (l. to Fernando Gonzalez). However Murray is NOT a great clay courter by any means and his status as a 6th favorite is suspect.
Murray is not having a good clay court season whatsoever as losses to Philipp Kohlschreiber and two losses to David Ferrer prevented Murray from even making a semifinal appearance in the last 3 clay court events. More broadly Murray lost to Mardy Fish in Miami, to Robin Soderling in Indian Wells, and to Janko Tipsarevic back in Dubai.
The main reason Murray is coming in so well regarded must simply be linked to his high ranking on tour (4th) and the expectation that he should be taking down Slams sooner or later as he is 23 years old and has been tipped for the top for a few years now.
7th favorites (tie): David Ferrer (+4000 Stan James) and Robin Soderling (+4000 Ladbrokes)
David Ferrer is having a very strong come back year so far. He's nearly back in the top 10 as he is ranked 11th now and the reason he is held to be a favorite is because of some modest historical success at the French Open as he has two quarterfinals appearances but more so he is a favorite because of his solid clay court season. Ferrer went deep in every clay court draw he contested as he made the semis in Monte Carlo, he made the semis in Barcelona, he made the finals in Rome, and he made the semis again in Madrid.
Ferrer also won a clay court title back in Acapulco (500 level) and he made the final of a 250 level tournament in Buenos Aires.
Robin Soderling is considered a favorite because he made the finals of the 2009 French Open. He has not been overly impressive recently however as he exited early in Madrid and Rome. A finals appearance in Barca shows that he is a half-serious threat but really he never faced anyone ranked higher than 35th on tour until he made the finals and then he lost to Verdasco.
9th favorite: David Nalbandian +8000 (80/1) extrabet
Nalbandian is ranked 150th on tour but that is mostly because he missed an extended amount of time recovering from injury in 2009 and 2010. He has not been active during the clay court season but he did play in Monte Carlo where he made the quarters. Nalbandian has twice made the semifinals of the French Open (2004 and 2006) and that appears to have earned him some support.
10th favorite: Fernando Gonzalez +10000 (10/1) Paddy Power
Fernando Gonzalez's ranking is fading on tour a little as he is now down to 14th. The decline may be age related as he will turn 30 years old this summer. This is a player that ups his game for Grand Slams as well as he made the semifinals of the 2009 French Open. He shoulda-coulda-woulda made the final and probably would have given Federer a better run for his money than Soderling did but he, Gonzalez, ran out of gas against Soderling up a break in the 5th set and so passed Gonzalez's likely last chance for a Grand Slam title (at +10000 he's not a bad bet though).
Recent losses in Barcelona and Houston to one Albert Ramos-Vinolas (ranked 161st at the time) and Horacio Zeballos (ranked 54th) respectively discredit Gonzalez at this point and perhaps it's safe to say that the tough Chilean's 'Forehando' is almost 'Gonzo'.
Conclusions
The 2010 French Open for the men's singles has to be judged as WEAK. Sportsbooks have withdrawn betting lines on Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro and that indicates that their wrist problems will keep them from playing in Roland Garros. They made the market interesting and without their presence, the 2010 Roland Garros Slam lacks some intrigue.
Besides Nadal there is no player that you can back with any kind of confidence and yet his odds are so short that you can't be too interested in the value. Federer is 2-10 against Nadal on clay careerwise and so long as Rafa is alive in the draw, you can't be too excited about Fed's odds either. The Swiss Maestro is more vulnerable against the field now than he has been in years passed and his opponents from the 3rd round on will NOT be facing Fed with the sense of doom that they have had in past years.
With this market you are advised to identify 5 players and to back them at long odds, each with very tiny bets that are weighted in accordance with their odds. If Nadal runs the table, so be it - it's not like -250 would have made you rich anyways but stunning upsets do happen and can happen in any sport at any time.
Here are my recommendations:
Novak Djokovic at +1800 with Paddy Power
Andy Murray at +3000 with Paddy Power
Ernests Gulbis at +2500 with Ladbrokes (enter MAXIMUMBONUS as your promotional code)
Thomaz Bellucci at +15000 with Paddy Power
Marin Cilic at +15000 with Paddy Power
Djokovic and Murray get the nod NOT because they have been overly impressive lately but because you have to wonder how long such talented stars will be denied before the burst out again. Gulbis, Bellucci, and Cilic get a sprinkle because youth prevails in tennis so often and they all have it on their side. Cilic did make the semifinals of the Aussie back in January and Bellucci has a 250 level clay court title this season. If you wanted to go with three instead of 5, scratch Murray and Bellucci.
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