Although the 2010 French Open may be dominated by one player, our staff writer suggests betting 5 younger players at long odds instead.
The clay court Slam for tennis is only days away from starting as the 2010 French Open will get underway on May 23rd (qualifying has already started). The venue is Roland Garros tennis center in Paris, France and the tournament will conclude the clay court season.
Here is a look at the key players in the men's draw as Rafael Nadal, the favorite, looks good to reclaim the French Open title which eluded him in 2009.
Favorite: Rafael Nadal of Spain (-250, 2/5; Paddy Power)
Rafael Nadal has had a fantastic year on clay as he has taken down three consecutive clay court Masters titles (Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid). His success at the French Open hardly requires comment as he has won the event 4 times (2005-08) and has only suffered one defeat at the Paris Slam (l. to Soderling R16 2009). He is an unambiguous favorite although his odds may be too short for a lot of punters liking.
2nd favorite: Roger Federer of Switzerland (+350, 7/2; bet365)
Roger Federer was drifting in the futures market for the 2010 French Open and could have been found at +600 to win with Paddy Power up until the Madrid Masters. Recent losses on clay to Ernests Gulbis and Albert Montanes had made some skeptical of Federer's form. However he appears to be poised to make a deep run at Roland Garros although it is difficult to see him defeating Nadal should they meet.
Federer is the top ranked player on tour although there are French Open scenarios that would see Nadal retake top spot. As the defending champion from last year Federer must be considered a favorite and regardless of short term form he appears to elevate his tennis in Grand Slams.
While Federer has only won 1 French Open he is the current holder of 3 Slams and can never be counted out of any tournament.
3rd favorite: Novak Djokovic of Serbia (+1800, 18/1; Paddy Power)
Novak Djokovic has made the semifinals of the French Open on two occasions (2007, 2008) and as a top 5 player on tour, he is dangerous. However he has not had a good clay court season as he lost early in Monte Carlo, Rome, and lost via retirement in Belgrade. This is a tough player to back with any kind of confidence at the moment and his odds of +1800 reflect the fact that oddsmakers understand that it will take a good price to get Djokovic backers to come out of their shells.
He is a proven Slam winner however as he won the 2008 Australian Open and you have to wonder how long one of the best players in the world will continue slumping.
4th favorites (tied): Ernests Gulbis and Fernando Verdasco (both +2500, 25/1; bet365)
Ernests Gulbis has had a very good clay court season and he is just 21 years old. Gulbis is ranked 27th on tour but his short term form on clay and the fact that he has a noteworthy historical result from the French Open makes him tied for the 4th favorite position. Gulbis made the quarters of the 2008 French Open when he was 19 and in the short term he has some solid match wins as he has recent victories over Roger Federer and Marcos Baghdatis. Gulbis is only one of two players this clay court season to take a set off of Nadal and that has turned some heads.
Fernando Verdasco made the finals in Monte Carlo in April and then he proceeded to win Barcelona with impressive wins over Gulbis, David Ferrer, and Robin Soderling. He also went deep in Rome with a win over Djokovic and can be fully expected to do some damage at the French Open although it would be a shock to see the Spaniard win as he has yet to even make a Grand Slam final despite being a veteran on tour who is often seeded reasonably high.
6th favorite: Andrew Murray +3000 (30/1; Paddy Power)
Andy Murray is a good clay courter as he made the French Open quarterfinals last year (l. to Fernando Gonzalez). However Murray is NOT a great clay courter by any means and he is not having a good clay court season so far.
A recent loss to Philipp Kohlschreiber and two losses to David Ferrer prevented Murray from even making a semifinal appearance in the last 3 clay court events. More broadly Murray lost to Mardy Fish in Miami, to Robin Soderling in Indian Wells, and to Janko Tipsarevic back in Dubai.
The main reason Murray is coming in so well regarded must simply be linked to his high ranking on tour (4th) and the expectation that he should be taking down Slams sooner or later as he is 23 years old and has been tipped for the top for a few years now.
Still, some sportsbooks have Murray priced as short as +1400 (William Hill) so the Paddy Power price of +3000 may be acceptable as that would only require a $3.33 bet to try and take down a bill.
7th favorites (tie): David Ferrer (+4000 Stan James) and Robin Soderling (+4000 Ladbrokes)
David Ferrer is having a very strong come back year so far. He's nearly back in the top 10 as he is ranked 11th now and the reason he is held to be a favorite is because of some modest historical success at the French Open as he has two quarterfinals appearances but more so he is a favorite because of his solid clay court season. Ferrer went deep in every clay court draw he contested as he made the semis in Monte Carlo, he made the semis in Barcelona, he made the finals in Rome, and he made the semis again in Madrid.
Ferrer also won a clay court title back in Acapulco (500 level) and he made the final of a 250 level tournament in Buenos Aires. He can be expected to make the quarters or the semis of the French Open but once he bumps into a Nadal or Federer, it will probably be lights out in straight sets.
Robin Soderling is considered a favorite because he made the finals of the 2009 French Open. He has not been overly impressive recently however as he exited early in Madrid and Rome. A finals appearance in Barca shows that he is a half-serious threat but really he never faced anyone ranked higher than 35th on tour until he made the finals and then he lost to Verdasco.
Soderling is a case of Bettors Beware - even if he goes deep into the draw he rarely closes out a tournament and if anything, you should be looking at quarter betting once the draw is released, if the odds are good.
Conclusions
The key players for the 2010 French Open for the men's singles has to be judged as WEAK.
Sportsbooks have withdrawn betting lines on Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro and that indicates that their wrist problems will keep them from playing in Roland Garros this year. They made the market interesting and without their presence, the 2010 Roland Garros Slam lacks some intrigue as they were two players that would have had a reasonable chance of taking out Nadal or Federer, especially Del Potro.
Besides Nadal there is no player that you can back with any kind of confidence and yet his odds are so short that you can't be too interested in the value. Federer is 2-10 against Nadal on clay careerwise and so long as Rafa is alive in the draw, you can't be too excited about Fed's odds either. The Swiss Maestro is more vulnerable against the field now than he has been in years passed and his opponents from the 3rd round on will NOT be facing Fed with the sense of doom that they have had in past years.
Fringe clay courters like Nicolas Almagro, Fernando Gonzalez, Thomaz Bellucci, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Philipp Kohlschreiber might feel like they have a reasonable shot of beating Federer, keeping in mind that Tommy Haas almost eliminated Fed last year before coughing up a 2 sets to love lead.
The French Open needs a younger player to burst onto the scene in order for it to hold any intrigue in the outright winner's market and on that note I'm recommending 5 young players that can each be backed at long odds with miniscule bets. If Nadal runs the table, so be it - it's not like -250 would have made you rich anyways but stunning upsets do happen and can happen in any sport at any time.
Here are my recommendations and note that in all cases, even with already established stars, the players listed are 23 years of old or younger:
Novak Djokovic at +1800 with Paddy Power
Andy Murray at +3000 with Paddy Power
Ernests Gulbis at +2500 with Ladbrokes (enter MAXIMUMBONUS as your promotional code)
Thomaz Bellucci at +15000 with Paddy Power
Marin Cilic at +15000 with Paddy Power
Djokovic and Murray get the nod NOT because they have been overly impressive lately but because you have to wonder how long such talented stars will be denied before their shots start hitting their spots again. Gulbis, Bellucci, and Cilic get a sprinkle because youth prevails in tennis so often and they all have it on their side.
Cilic did make the semifinals of the Aussie back in January and Bellucci has a 250 level clay court title this season. You do not have to bet that much on any one of these players to get a good return and having them all in your pick list should mean you will have someone (or two) at long odds deep into the draw at Roland Garros.
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