Nadal's hard court form in the last year does little to justify his short odds.
The 2010 US Open is not that far off any longer as it is within 4 week of starting on August 30th. There are three other important tournaments, all hard court, that will be played before that date: ATP Washington which is well underway, the Toronto Masters, and the Cincinnati Masters. There is also a stop in New Haven but most of the top players do not contest that draw as the rest and practice for Flushing Meadows.
As of right now, Rafael is the outright favorite for the 2010 US Open title. However his backers can do no better that +275 with Paddy Power (11/4), odds that can be ignored.
Nadal has been unbeated on the tennis courts in the last few months with the exception of a meaningless loss at London/Queen's Club but he has done nothing on HARD COURTS that would make you think he can win the US Open this year. Nadal lost in the quarters of the Aussie and he lost in the semis for both Indian Wells and Miami.
Remember in 2008 when Nadal won the French Open and then proceeded to win Wimbledon? He won the Canadian Open that year as well, in Toronto, and he did not follow those results up with anything but a semifinals loss to Andy Murray at Flushing Meadows.
You can still get Roger Federer, the reigning Aussie Open champion and Cincinnati champion, at +300 with Boylesports, BetFred, Victor Chandler, and Coral and that is my recommendation. Alongside that you should take Novak Djokovic at +1600 (16/1) with SportingBet.
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