Nadal has the futures market crushed at this point.

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Rafael Nadal needs the clay court season to re-assert himself as a major title threat on the ATP tour.

After bombing on the hard courts since he returned from injury last summer Nadal needs his best surface now more than ever and even though he is not on championship calibre form, Nadal has opened as a huge favorite to win the 2010 Monte Carlo Masters tournament.

bet365, for example, have Nadal priced at -200 (1/2) in the outright winner's market although SkyBet do have him priced longer at -162 (8/13).

Nadal's odds have to be judged to be way too short.  For about 10 months now Nadal has often come in as the first, second, third, or fourth favorite and yet he has NO TITLES in that time frame.  Regardless of Nadal's clay court skills, it is very risky to bet a player on a massive title drought to win a Masters Series 1000 event at odds well shorter than EVEN.

With Roger Federer not in the field there are two names that should be coming to mind immediately to win in Monte Carlo: Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. 


Djokovic has come in at +650 (13/2) with Boylesports and that looks like a good play to make.  He's NOT on form heading into the tournament either but at least he's coming in at odds that you don't have to pound too hard in order to make things interesting.  At +650, his odds have to be assessed as having slight value.

Murray is NOT on form either and as clay is his worst surface, he's been pushed out to +1100 (11/1) in this tournament odds that have some value as well.

But down the list David Ferrer and Juan Carlos Ferrero, clay court specialists, appear to be players worth backing at incredibly long odds.  They both have at least one clay court title this season in lesser tournaments and each player might end up going deep into the draw.  Ferrer is priced at +4000 (40/1) with Stan James while Ferrero is priced at +8000 (80/1) with Blue Square.  Both of those lines are valuable and those players, along with Djokovic and Murray, are the players worth considering heading into this tournament.

You can't bet all the players worthy of a look however, or else when you win you will have mitigated your profit margin too much with losing bets on your other picks.  The smartest thing to do here is to take Djokovic as your main pick while sprinkling both Murray and Ferrer.  If Ferrero comes out fierce in the opening rounds with straight sets victories and with no tiebreakers played, then he can be bet as well as it will take a while for his odds to shorten from +8000.

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