Rafael Nadal won last year at Indian Wells but can he defend his title?

The BNP Paribas Open from the Indian Wells Tennis Center at Indian Wells, California should be a tough test for Spain's top player, Rafael Nadal. 

Nadal is the defending champion from 2009 and as a result he has 1000 points to defend, points that are scheduled to drop from his total on March 22nd, 2010.

Currently Nadal is ranked 3rd on the ATP tour with 7520 points and he could quite easily drop below 7000 points after Indian Wells.  Depending on how Andy Murray does at Indian Wells (he was a finalist last year) we might see Nadal slip back down to 4th on tour.

While nothing major will happen to Nadal's ranking in March, April and May of 2010 could be a different story.

Those two months will see a lot of tour ranking points at risk for Nadal.  On April 19th 1000 points are scheduled to drop from Nadal's total from his win at Monte Carlo in 2009.  On April 26th 500 points from his Barcelona title are scheduled to drop off as well.  On May 3rd his 1000 points from winning Rome last year are scheduled to drop and finally on May 17th 600 more points from his finals appearance at Madrid last year will be at risk.

There's also 180 points from his quarterfinals appearance in Miami last year that will be at risk soon but Nadal could defend those.

However a large chunk of the other 4100 points for the five other tournaments (Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid, and Barcelona) are in serious jeopardy of going undefended as Nadal's form is not the same now as it was at this time last year due to his nagging injuries.

Let's say Nadal protects 1000 of those 4100 points with a mix of quarterfinal and semifinal appearances.  That would likely drop him down to about 6th on tour heading into the French Open where he is currently priced at -110 (10/11) with Paddy Power.

There's a lot of pressure on Nadal to reproduce his efforts from last season starting with Indian Wells.  He could do it, especially when he plays on clay, but it will not be easy for him as he is not the same player as he was a year ago.

But old habits die hard and a lot of people are used to betting on Nadal.  However, smart bettors should be looking for opportunities to get good odds by betting AGAINST Nadal in the next couple of months.

Start by taking Roger Federer in the futures market with Ladbrokes to win the 2010 French Open at +250 (5/2) and look for updated odds on the Indian Wells tournament which should be released in a matter of days.

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