Davydenko odds are short but they could still be valuable.

Nikolay Davydenko and Ernests Gulbis will meet in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California, a match that is scheduled for March 13th. 

Gulbis has enjoyed precedent setting success on tour lately and he appears to have won himself at least a few backers.  However, although Davydenko clearly has more supporters his odds might still be judged to be long enough to bet.

Davydenko to win, -300 (1/3) Ladbrokes
Gulbis to win, +240 (12/5) bet365

Davydenko has some injury problems with his wrist but they are lingering.  If he is playing then you have to think that he is close to 100% as he has no problems missing important events if he thinks that playing might be a risky idea.  If Davydenko plays and is losing, he might pull out of the match and lose via retirement.  However with a lot of sportsbooks that would be a "bet refunded" scenario regardless of who you picked or who was winning at the time (check with your sportsbook's customer service department).

Gulbis was barely in the top 100 about a month ago but since then he has made a nice run.  In Memphis, a level 500 tournament, Gulbis made the semifinals and picked up a cool 180 ranking points, a big boost for a player trying to hang on to a top 100 position.

Then in Delray Beach, Florida, a level 250 event, Gulbis took down his first tour title as he cruised through 5 matches without losing a set to take down 250 ranking points - points that elevated his ranking up to 45th on tour.  While he beat Ivo Karlovic in the final of Delray Beach, it is not clear if Gulbis can beat the top players yet.

For example, when he lost in the Memphis semifinals it was only against Sam Querrey, the 31st ranked player on tour and one that is far inferior to Davydenko at this point in their careers.  Back in early February Gulbis lost to the unfeared Leonardo Mayer, ranked 76th at the time, in the first round of the San Jose event.  And at the Australian Open, Gulbis couldn't beat Juan Monaco, the 33rd ranked player on tour and the loss was in straight sets.

Gulbis has been given far too much credit to be left as short as +240 (12/5) against the talented Russian and reigning ATP World Championship title holder.  Perhaps if Gulbis was somewhere near +450 (9/2) he could be risked with a conservative bet but those odds can't be hoped for.

In his little run here, Gulbis, to his credit, has defeated Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek but all that proves is that Gulbis might have a future in the top 25.  There's nothing too unusual about Berdych dropping a match to a lower ranked opponent and there's nothing unusual about a 31 year old, whose ranking is sinking, losing to a 21 year old in tennis.

Davydenko is ranked 6th on tour and the last time Gulbis beat someone ranked that high was more than a year ago when he defeated Novak Djokovic in Brisbane in January of 2009.  Since then Gulbis has gone 0 for 8 against the top 10, losing to Juan Martin Del Potro twice, Andy Roddick once, Andy Murray twice, Jo-wilfried Tsonga twice, and Roger Federer once.

Head to head against Davydenko, Gulbis is 0-2 and both of Davydenko's wins came on hard court.

Even though Gulbis has shown that he has improved on tour his title is barely a tour title as it was down at the 250 ranks.  Davydenko, when he does play at the 250 level, treats the tournaments like they are practice courts, at least for the opening rounds.  Where Gulbis has 1 title at the 250 level, Davydenko has many as, for starters, he won in Doha 2010, Kuala Lumpur 2009, and Umag 2009.

Pound Davydenko in this match but look for Gulbis to sort of hold his own.

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