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Justine Henin French Open Futures

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Shane Lambert - 22 Feb 2010

Henin, the solid  favorite on the women's side for the 2010 French Open, is a four time champion at Roland Garros.

Justine Henin, with bet365, leads the futures market for the 2010 French Open and her price is currently at +137 (about 27/20). 

Those odds may shorten in the months leading up to Roland Garros as the French Open is probably not quite on the radar for tennis betting yet but here are the odds for the key players to win the 2010 French Open outright, followed by our recommended betting for this event:

1.  Justine Henin, +137 (27/20), bet365
2.  Kim Clijsters, +600 (6/1), William Hill
3.  Serena Williams, +650 (13/2), Ladbrokes
4.  Svetlana Kuznetsova, +700 (7/1), Paddy Power
5.  Victoria Azarenka, +1100 (11/1), Boylesports
6.  Elena Dementieva, +1400 (14/1), Boylesports
7.  Dinara Safina, +1400 (14/1), Ladbrokes
8.  Caroline Wozniacki, +1800 (18/1), Paddy Power
9.  Venus Williams, +2000 (20/1), Ladbrokes
10. Jelena Jankovic, +3300 (33/1), Stan James
11. Maria Sharapova, +3300 (33/1), Stan James
12. Ana Ivanovic, +3300 (33/1), Stan James

Henin's presence in the draw is clearly pushing the odds long for even the second favorite and there is good reason for that.  Henin made the finals of the recent Australian Open and, despite her long layoff, she is a force on tour even at the Grand Slam level.

Her best Slam has always been the French Open as she won 4 titles at Roland Garros (2003, 2005, 2006, and 2007) before she 'retired' from tennis just prior to the 2008 French Open.

Her past success at the French combined with her stellar play on tour since returning from retirement has clearly won her a lot of backers to win again at Roland Garros in the spring.

If you are interested in backing Henin, now might be the time to do so as her odds could shorten more in the months leading up to the French, especially if Henin should win in Indian Wells, Miami, or on the clay courts that follow in April and May.

One thing to keep in mind is that odds of +137 have an associated implied probability of 42.19%.  What that means is that if you are taking Henin at a price of +137, the best price out there at the moment that our staff found (bet365), then you have to do so thinking that she has a better chance of winning the French than 42.19%.

Against the entire field of secondary, tertiary, and peripheral threats, Henin's chances might be more or less accurately pegged by her odds at this time and that is bad news for Henin backers: when betting sports futures you want to find value, players who are better than their odds, not pushes or players whose odds are too short.

Kim Clijsters is the second favorite for Roland Garros, something that has to be considered to be some sort of joke. 

"Did you hear the one about the Belgian tennis player that retired, had a baby, returned to tennis and then won the US Open?  No?  Everyone thought that her hardcourt success at a tournament she had won before meant she would all of a sudden be better than Kuznetsova on clay!"

Still waiting for the punchline?  Bet Clijsters at +600 and watch what happens to your bankroll in May.

The joke will be on you.

Clijsters' best results at the French Open were in 2001 and 2003 when she was the runnerup in Paris but those are now OLD results from 7 and 9 years ago.

Since that time Clijsters has played in two French opens, the 2005 event and the 2006 event, and notably she has a semifinal appearance from 2006.

But with her best results being ancient history you might like Clijsters at +1000 (10/1), odds that are simply not available at this time.

Serena Williams is a much better pick than Clijsters at roughly the same price (+650 Ladbrokes).  Williams has not won the French since 2002, about the time when she started winning everything, but at least she has won it before.  Her most recent result from 2009 was a quarterfinal loss but even that was to the eventual champion, Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Even though the clay courts of Roland Garros have not been where Williams has enjoyed the best success over the years, you have to find such long odds a bit tempting, especially since Williams plays better at Slams than anywhere else.  She's going to be the top seed at the French Open and that should keep the tough players clear until at least the quarterfinals and, the best player in the world right now, Williams is capable of playing with anyone on any surface.

Svetlana Kuznetsova, the defending champion for the French, has enjoyed distinguished success at Roland Garros over the last four years.  She won last year but even before that she had a semifinal appearance (2008), a quarterfinal appearance (2007), and a runnerup appearance (2006).  A player that will be judged as historically significant from this time period in women's tennis, Kuznetsova doesn't fail where her country-women Dinara Safina and Elena Dementieva both do and at +700, you have to like Kuznetsova's odds.

Stay away from Azarenka and Wozniacki as they are not ready to win Grand Slams.  They both have Slams in their future but as shown by Azarenka's demoralizing loss to Serena Williams in the quarterfinals of the Aussie and as shown by Wozniacki's performance in the 2009 US Open final vs Kim Clijsters, they cannot be bet.....yet.

Stay away from Venus Williams for the opposite reason: her Grand Slams are behind her.  Even if you think she can squeeze one more Slam out of her soon to be 30 year old legs and lungs, you would expect that Slam to be won at Wimbledon, not at the French, a tournament she never won even at her physical peak.

Sharapova, Jankovic, and Ivanovic are big time afterthoughts for the French Open.  These players need to show strength in the tournaments in March and April before they can be considered for any bets whatsoever.

The only huge longshot, not in the list above, that has value is Dominika Cibulkova, a semifinalist from last year.  Born in 1989 and currently ranked 30th, Cilbulkova may be below the radar and has a little bit of potential to make the scene on the Grand Slam stage.  At +2500 (25/1) you shouldn't touch her, but at +10000 (100/1), her price with Paddy Power, you could sprinkle her ever so slightly as you barely have to risk anything for those odds to possibly return a small windfall.

Our recommendation at this time is to get the bets rolling especially with Serena Williams and Svetlana Kuznetsova.  Whatever amount you are thinking of betting, put 49% on both of those two players and 2% on Cibulkova.  Betting this far out, there's nothing wrong with keeping your amounts conservative so that you can keep betting options open after results from Indian Wells, Miami, Rome, and Madrid start pouring in.

Register with Paddy Power to bet on French Open futures.




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