Why the French Open will lead to a major overhaul in the complexion of the men's top 10 this season.
The 2011 French Open starts later this month with qualifying matches starting as early as May 17th and the men's final scheduled for June 5th.
The recent results from the 2011 Madrid Masters have proven that Rafael Nadal, the five time champion from Roland Garros, is not invincible on clay as Novak Djokovic defeated the Spaniard in Madrid's championship match.
With Rome still ahead and with two minor tournaments immediately preceding the French Open, there's still plenty to pay attention to before the round of 128 begins in Roland Garros.
However at this time the French Open looks as though it is going to shake up the top 10 quite severely.
Sweden's Robin Soderling does not look threatening to duplicate his final appearance from last year's event. Soderling is currently the world number five and he has had some difficulty in recent tournaments. The Swede might still be bothered by his knee, an injury that kept him out of Monte Carlo, but the bottom line is that he has not been doing that well in recent outings.
Soderling lost to Ivan Dodig in Barcelona, he lost to Juan Martin Del Potro in Estoril, and he only made the quarters in Madrid. Those results imply that he could have trouble in Roland Garros, perhaps even in the early rounds if he ends up bumping into someone like Feliciano Lopez or Del Potro again.
Soderling does not appear to be a threat for the final this season and that could send his ranking tumbling down to 7th or so.
Tomas Berdych made the semifinals last season and it would be surprising if he did that again this year. Berdych, in two events, has two losses to players outside of the top 30 as Ivan Ljubicic and Thomaz Bellucci both scored wins over the Czech.
With those kinds of losses in his recent history it is hard to picture Berdych beating a tough round of 16 opponent at Roland Garros and that could send his ranking sliding down a little as well.
Rafael Nadal is not a lock for the French Open title like he has been in the past and with Novak Djokovic gaining ground on the world number one in the rankings, Nadal could face a ranking challenge at Roland Garros.
Nadal won the event last season and that brought him 2000 ranking points. If he should lose in the final this year he'll still earn 1200 ranking points this season however that would be a net loss of 800 ranking points and it could open the door to a new world number one.
Djokovic, the player most likely to defeat Nadal in the final if anyone does, only made the quarters last season at Roland Garros, a result that brought nothing but 360 ranking points. If Djokovic won the final at Roland Garros 2011 he would turn a huge net gain on the ranking points and he could very well end up number one.
Heading into Rome, the French Open appears as though it will lead to Soderling fading, Berdych fading, and Nadal and Djokovic possibly changing spots. Those fortunes are hardly set in stone and Rome results promise to provide more insight with the second Grand Slam of the calendar year now on the near horizon.
