Almagro doesn't look good at all here but he might have a chance to take a set down against a struggle Nadal.

Rafael Nadal and Nicolas Almagro will go head to head for the 5th time on Wednesday November 11th.  As expected Nadal has come in as a big favorite with really short odds

Blue Square has Nadal at -1600 (1/16) to win this match which is returns little on a winning bet. 

Almagro's chances in the match need to be examined to see if he has a realistic enough chance to upset Nadal, who hasn't played since his Shanghai Masters finals loss to Davydenko.

Almagro, +700 (7/1) with Blue Square, is 0-4 against Nadal in their lifetime series with their most recent match coming from the 3rd round of this year's US Open.  Almagro has never taken a set of off Nadal nor has Almagro forced many tiebreakers as the two players have only played one tiebreaker against one another.

Nadal's play hasn't been on the same level post-French Open as it was prior to the French so he can be targeted for an upset in Paris but Almagro does not look poised to be the opponent that provides that upset.  Nadal, despite weaker play, has been defeating opponents ranked outside of the top 20 routinely since coming back from his injury.  Almagro, on the other hand, is threatened by players of far less ability than Nadal and he, Almagro, has only one victory against a top 10 player this year (defeated Gael Monfils, ranked 10th at the time, in the Acalpulco final back in February).

Betting options on this match do not appear to offer an attractive straight up call as you practically have to sprinkle Almagro, and risk a player who doesn't offer much hope here, for any kind of meaningful return.

Set betting, however, does provide some value.  Almagro looked sharp against Basel semifinalist Marco Chiudinelli in the first round and Nadal is not the dominant player he was back in the spring.  Almagro may be able to take a set off of Nadal tomorrow and with bet365 Nadal can be called to win the match exactly 2-1 and that result is set at +300 (3/1).

Go to bet365 to bet on ATP tennis.