Is this match going to be closer than most people think?

Andy Murray should be highly interested in the Roger Federer vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga match as he, Murray, will face the winner in the 2010 Australian Open final.

In the semifinal, Federer has come in as a crushing favorite as bet365 have his price at -700 (1/7).

Those considering pounding that price need to remember that the last time these two players met was not all that long ago, back during the summer hard court season.  Tsonga emerged over Federer as the victor in the Masters Series Canada quarterfinal and that result has to deter you from pounding Federer's line as odds of -700 (1/7) do not look all that great for him. 

Federer is the far better player and he's much more 'clutch' in situations like this, however Tsonga isn't going to lack confidence in this match - not only because he's beaten Federer before but because he's made the Australian Open final before as well. 

Federer's true odds feel more like -350 to -400, and that makes -700 a bad line to back.

You could back Tsonga at +450 (9/2) with bet365 as there is a little bit of value with that line - there's no way Tsonga is that big of an underdog here - but the smartest thing to do is probably to go with set betting.

This could be a five setter as Tsonga appears to be a worthy opponent and our recommendation is to take both player's betting lines to win in five sets with bet365.  Tsonga to win 3-2 is priced at +1100 (11/1) while Federer to win 3-2 is priced at +600 (6/1).  Even though one bet is guaranteed to lose, the winning bet, should the match go five sets, will more than make up for it.

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