A second round match is possible between two players who are at least quarterfinal calibre.

Elena Dementieva (+1200, 12/1; bet365) deserved a more fortunate draw at the Australian Open this year based on her superior play over the last year. 

She made two Grand Slam semifinals in 2009 and came a backhand away from making the Wimbledon final.  She also won the Canadian Open and has been a tough out in general where she hasn't won.

What's her reward?

She gets the 5 seed at the Australian Open as she should but still gets burned by the luck of the draw.

Dementieva, if she wins her first round match, will likely play Justine Henin (+450, 9/2; bet365) in the second round, a player who might be seeded 3rd based solely on ability.

That possible match-up would have the calibre of a quarterfinal match and the fact that it would take place in the second round really highlights what is wrong with awarding seeds independent of analysis.  Dementieva should be a 6 seed with Henin seeded 3rd and these two players shouldn't meet until they have each won 4 matches.  Instead one of them, probably Dementieva, will get tagged with a second round loss and then miss out on valuable Grand Slam level ranking points that she would probably otherwise earn, not to mention prize money.

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