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ATP World Tour Finals With Nadal, Federer, Others

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Live Tennis Staff - 17 Nov 2009

One last chance to get some money in on tennis before the short off-season begins.

Even though the off-season is short - too short according to many players -  the ATP World Tour Finals tournament offers one last chance before the New Year for tennis punters to top up their bankroll.

Here are the updated odds to win the ATP World Tour Finals now that all events leading up to the Finals have been completed:

1.  Novak Djokovic, +300 (3/1), Boylesports
1.  Roger Federer, +300 (3/1), Ladbrokes
3.  Andy Murray, +450 (9/2), Blue Square
4.  Juan Martin Del Potro, +800 (8/1), Blue Square
5.  Rafael Nadal, +800 (8/1), Coral
6.  Nikolay Davydenko, +1000 (10/1),
bet365
7.  Fernando Verdasco, +3300 (33/1), Boylesports
8.  Andy Roddick, +3300 (33/1), Boylesports

Djokovic and Murray are the only players who appear convincing enough to bet at this point.  With everyone else, something is questionable or eyebrow raising.

Federer's confusing because he lost to Julien Benneteau last week and as far as Federer goes, he's in a drought.  His odds have drifted nicely though but really his odds of +300 (3/1) are still a little too short.  If they drifted to +375 before the tournament began that would be nice, in fact necessary, to call Federer at this point in his career.

Del Potro is confusing because he's only won a couple matches since the US Open and he exited both the Paris Masters and the Shanghai Masters via retirement.  Here's a valid question regarding the reigning US Open champ: will he play all his matches in London?

Nadal can't be bet on because he hasn't beaten anyone who will be in London since way back in Madrid in May.  Djokovic has beaten Nadal since then, Davydenko has beaten Nadal since then, and so has Juan Martin Del Potro.

Roddick can't really be bet on because he's struggling with injury and he hasn't won a match since the 2nd round of the US Open (though his play has been sparse).  At least his odds have been left long but betting a player that has a recent loss to a mucky-muck barely in the top 150 really clouds the value on Roddick's long price.  Can he compete with this field that includes his nemesis Roger Federer?  Maybe the reason Roddick wants a shorter season is because he knows now, at age 27, that he can't run down the balls in the late season any longer.

That leaves Davydenko and Verdasco, two players who haven't looked looked bad at all during the fall.  At +1000 Davydenko's price is more or less accurate against this field (sport's punters prefer odds left too long) but value can be found with Verdasco, as the tough Spaniard has been set way too long at +3300 (33/1).

Verdasco is not a favorite at all but his true odds might be more like +2300 (23/1) against this field which includes some hobblers and slumpers.

There are also betting lines available on two other players: Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Prices for these two players, potential alternates, can be found with Sportingbet as Soderling is priced at +5000 (50/1) and Tsonga is priced at +10000 (100/1).

Betting alternates contains extra risk.  Firstly, they are alternates based on inferior play over the last year, but besides that you have to wonder if they are simply going to get a chance to play a match in the first place.

Still, Soderling might see some action in London just because there's a few players in the qualified field who have had their fair share of boo-boos lately.  If Soderling gets the chance, he could beat this field as he has surged through the rankings in the last 6 months from top 30 to top 10.  There is no one in this field that he couldn't beat at this point in his career and his long odds justify small risks.

Based on how the tournament in Paris played out our recommendation now is to pound Djokovic while sprinkling Verdasco and Soderling as cover bets.

Go to Boylesports or Sportingbet to bet on the ATP Finals.



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