Robin Soderling only sneaked into the tournament as a late replacement but if he beats Novak Djokovic he will have one foot in the semi-finals.

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Soderling looked the most impressive player in the competition so far on Monday when he took Rafael Nadal apart in straight sets. The match was much tenser than the 6-4, 6-4 scoreline suggested but Soderling kept his composure well in the end.

Novak Djokovic won a scrappy match against Nikolay Davydenko which lasted nearly three hours. Djokovic did not look like the player who has just won Basel and Paris back-to-back and was lucky to get through, saving multiple break points in the final set. Afterwards he played down his chances of beating Soderling. “I’m very exhausted after the long season,” Djokovic said. “I wouldn’t rate myself as favourite in that match because he’s in great form. It’s going to be a tough one.”   

However Djokovic has a definite psychological advantage having won all five of his matches against Soderling. It was 6-3, 6-3 in the Beijing semi-finals in September but quite a lot closer a couple of weeks ago in Paris. However Djokovic was still too strong in the end, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 and Soderling will need to come up with something extra.

This match will be an interesting barometer for Djokovic’s chances of winning the tournament. So far, Federer and Soderling have shown some equally scintillating end of season form so this will require Djokovic to raise his game.

Boylesports are in no doubt of who is going to win this one, pricing Djokovic at 4/11. Soderling’s best odds are 5/2 with Sky Bet.