Soderling and Djokovic may be the best value in the futures market at the moment to win the ATP World Finals.
London, England will be hosting the ATP World Finals in late November. While the whole field has not been determined yet, currently there are 6 players that are guaranteed an entrance into the event. Here are the odds to win the ATP World Finals for the 6 players who have already secured their spot:
1. Roger Federer, +200 (2/1), Blue Square
2. Andy Murray, +450 (9/2), Blue Square
3. Rafael Nadal, +450 (9/2), Paddy Power
4. Juan Martin Del Potro, +600 (6/1), Blue Square
5. Novak Djokovic, +700 (7/1), Paddy Power
6. Andy Roddick, +2000 (20/1), Blue Square
With the group up above the best value is with Novak Djokovic. He has a recent title and deep results in recent tournaments where he did not win, including a semifinal appearance in Flushing Meadows. He has also been very active on tour, playing a lot of events, and has doesn't have any serious issues with fatigue or injury at the moment, unlike most of his competitors.
Juan Martin Del Potro hasn't followed up his US Open title with any degree of success as he struggles with a bit of an injury. He lost via retirement to Jurgen Melzer (43rd; all ranks at time of match) in Shanghai and prior to that he lost in Tokyo to Edouard Roger-Vasselin (189th). Del Potro's victory at the US Open had to be very satisfying and you have to wonder if that has lead to any kind of a let-down in effort.
Nadal still hasn't beaten anyone better than Fernando Gonzalez since coming back from injury earlier this year. Gonzalez is surely no slouch but he is very unlikely to make the ATP World Finals and that means every player in the event will be better than him. There used to be a day, about 6 months ago, when you would have killed to have Nadal priced at +450 (9/2) in the futures market for most events but now that time has come and gone. Nadal's result in Shanghai might convince some to sprinkle him to win the ATP World Finals but if you look at his draw to the finals and his victories via retirement, then there is nothing to get all that excited about.
Our recommendation is to avoid Nadal completely in this event (even for individual matches when the odds are released).
Andy Murray has the got the wrist problem and hasn't played a meaningful match since losing to Marin Cilic at the US Open in the 4th round. He does have a couple victories since then but both were against players ranked out in space. Players coming back from injury are never great to bet on: you don't know what to expect as some players don't regain top form immediately. You need better value than +450 (9/2) with Murray if you are going to bet the Brit against the toughest field there is.
Betting Roddick would just be dumb at +2000 (20/1). If he won the ATP World Finals it would be far more surprising than that so don't flirt with the idea at all.
Federer can certainly win this event but at +200 (2/1) and idle since his US Open loss, you might want to watch him in Basel first.
The two other spots look like they will go to Nikolay Davydenko and Robin Soderling. Fernando Verdasco will certainly have a say in the matter and maybe even Fernando Gonzalez or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will as well, but Davydenko and Soderling look good at the moment.
Both of those two players, Soderling and Davydenko, could be sprinkled in the futures market. Davydenko is set at +1200 (12/1) with Paddy Power and Soderling is priced at +4000 (40/1) with Skybet. Unlike Davydenko, if the ATP World Finals started today, Soderling would NOT be in the field but he is capable of beating anyone at this point in his career. Davydenko has been beating everyone since the US Open, except for a loss to Cilic that was probably fatigue induced.
To summarize, our recommendation is to either run with Federer against the field after watching his performance in Basel (that's in early November) or sprinkle Djokovic, Davydenko, and Soderling, as they have shown enough strength on tour to warrant a gamble at the long odds they are offered at.
Go to Paddy Power, Skybet, or Blue Square to bet on ATP tennis futures.
