Roger Federer is undefeated against Tomas Berdych since 2004.
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Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych are set to meet for the 10th time in their careers on Tuesday as they will be going head to head from the Sony Ericsson Open from Miami, Florida.
At stake is a spot in the quarterfinals in Miami and as expected Roger Federer has come in as a heavy favorite:
Roger Federer to win, -450 (2/9), William Hill
Tomas Berdych to win, +350 (7/2), bet365
As far as form goes at the Miami Masters it is Berdych that gets a little bit of a nod. Both players have won both of their matches without dropping a set yet, however Federer has faced two tiebreakers, both against Florent Serra, in a match that you would have expected to be much more one sided. Berdych, in Miami this year, has taken all of his sets by a break and may be poised for an upset here.
Head to head this series goes all the way back to 2004 and that is the last time Berdych was able to beat Federer. They have met 9 times on tour overall and Federer holds a convincing 8-1 record against Berdych, including a 22-5 edge in sets played.
Even though you might like betting against Federer here because he hasn't been his sharpest in Miami (or Indian Wells) you should probably hold off on aggressively betting Berdych at based on the head to head history. However set betting with bet365 might be where you can go for value:
Federer wins 2-0, -200 (1/2)
Federer wins 2-1, +300 (3/1)
Berdych wins 2-0, +650 (13/5)
Berdych wins 2-1, +850 (17/2)
Our recommendation is to bet against Federer winning in straight sets in this match. Put a mid-sized bet on Berdych to win 2-1 at +850 (17/2) while using the other two scenarios, Federer wins 2-1 and Berdych wins 2-0, as insurance (just sprinkle those lines). Depending on how you weight the bets you could up the bankroll significantly if Berdych wins 2-1 and only losing if Federer takes down the match in exactly straight sets. The thinking is that if Federer is going to allow Serra to hang around for tiebreakers he probably will have a much tougher time with Berdych and with that you would expect anything except a straight sets victory for Fed.
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