It's safe to say that Federer will have a tougher match in the quarters than he has in the first three rounds of the Cincinnati Masters.
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Roger Federer appeared to have a fortunate draw pre-tournament at the 2010 Cincinnati Masters but the way his draw has played out has made advancing effortless.
Federer had a bye through the first round, he beat Denis Istomin via retirement in the second round, and then in the third round Philipp Kohlschreiber couldn't play because of bummed shoulder. Now Federer is into the quarterfinals of ATP Cincinnati having only had to play 7 games through the first 3 rounds of the tournament.
Federer will face Nikolay Davydenko in the quarters and the two players have a fairly long history against one another. Federer leads the career series against Davydenko at 13-2 with the Russian's two victories both being fairly recent: last year's World Tour finals and Doha 2010.
Since those back to back losses Federer has avenged himself however as Federer took Davydenko out of the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals after trailing by a set.
With Federer coming into the Cincinnati quarters with plenty of rest thanks to the bye, the retirement, and the walkover it is hard to find a reason to bet against the Swiss Maestro here, especially since the odds on the Russian player are not long. Davydenko has come in at +275 (11/4) with Paddy Power and those odds have to be judged short not only based on the head to head record but also due to the fact that Davydenko has not been back to top form since coming back from a wrist injury not that long ago.
Perhaps Davydenko's defeat of David Ferrer in the round of 16 suggests that the world number 6 is back to playing good tennis after a series of weak losses however Federer seems very likely to beat Davydenko once again as Fed, unlike Davydenko, actually has recent wins over players in the top 10.
Federer has come in priced at -333 (3/10; SportingBet) and those odds are valuable as you would probably only give Davydenko 1 match in 6 against Federer at this point in their careers.
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