Staff writer Shane Lambert suggests that Roger Federer is less of a threat at Roland Garros than what his betting odds imply.
The 2011 French Open is still months away as it will not start until May 17th with championship matches played during the first week of June. Roger Federer, the champion from 2009, is generally considered the second favorite for the clay court Grand Slam title behind only Rafael Nadal of Spain (ie. Blue Square).
Novak Djokovic and Robin Soderling are considered the 3rd and 4th favorites respectively but they could very well place ahead of Federer by the time the championship match comes around in 4 months time.
Juan Martin Del Potro is the 5th favorite and he looks well over-rated at that as well as the Argentine didn't do much in Melbourne Park and who knows what to expect from him in the upcoming months.
Roger Federer lost in the Roland Garros quarterfinals last season in what was his first loss before the semifinals of a Grand Slam in a very long time. It's probably something his fans will see more and more of in the future as the Swiss Maestro's results are generally fading in Grand Slam tournaments.
Perhaps there's not much reason to look at the French in-depth until at least Monte Carlo's results are in but in my opinion Djokovic and Soderling are larger threats to win outright in Paris than Federer at this point. Djokovic and Soderling are both formidable clay courters and Federer probably won't have the gas to beat them should he come across either of them late in a Grand Slam draw.
