Surely Falla will lose but can he take a set off of Federer?

Roger Federer has drawn Alejandro Falla in the 2nd round of the French Open from Roland Garros in a match that is scheduled to take place on Wednesday May 26th.

Odds have already been released and depending on which sportsbook you use Federer has opened anywhere from a -20000 (1/200; bet365) favorite to a -4100 (1/41; Coral) favorite while Falla's best price is +2000 (20/1; bet365) straight up.  The true odds on this match are likely about -3000 (1/30) for Federer and +3000 (30/1) on Falla so to find betting value with this match you'll need to look at other markets.

Federer is 2-0 against Falla and both previous matches were 2nd round Grand Slam matches at Roland Garros 2006 and Wimbledon 2004.  Besides being undefeated against Falla straight up, Federer is 6-0 in sets played and 36-11 in games played.

Falla did look good in the first round however as he defeated Tipsarevic 18-6 in games played.  That kind of thrashing against a tour veteran still in his prime is impressive and Falla may be able to play Federer to two close sets before losing in 3 or 4.

Federer will win his match against Falla but his best price of -4100 (1/41) can't win you anything unless you already have a big enough bankroll to retire with anyways.  The best angle on this match is to bet Federer to win precisely 3 sets to 1 and Ladbrokes have that event priced at +500 (5/1). Federer did lose precisely 1 set in his second and third round matches at the 2009 French Open against Jose Acasuso and Paul-Henri Mathieu so betting him to lose one set and only one set against Falla seems realistic.

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