Federer still the favorite.

It is very difficult to predict the 2009 US Open because there are four players that all look like they are championship calibre: Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and Andy Roddick.  Throw some very tough outs like Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro into the mix and the final Grand Slam event of the season looks like it will be very entertaining.  In making the smartest pick the odds must be considered and they have changed since the conclusion of Wimbledon 2009 (all odds bet365).

Here are all the players with odds of +5000 (50/1) or better to win the 2009 US Open.

1.  Roger Federer, +150 (3/2)
2.  Andy Murray, +250 (5/2)
3.  Rafael Nadal, +350 (7/2)
4.  Novak Djokovic, +750 (15/2)
5.  Andy Roddick, +900 (9/1)
6.  Juan Martin Del Potro, +1000 (10/1)
7.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, +1800 (18/1)
8.  Fernando Verdasco, +3300 (33/1)
9.  Nikolay Davydenko, David Nalbandian, and Fernando Gonzalez +5000 (50/1)

If you throw out Roger Federer and Andy Murray as picks not worth making because of their prices (not because of their ability) then where is the value?

Notably Roddick has shortened since the end of Wimbledon as he was a +1200 (12/1) underdog immediately following The Championships but there is still value in picking him at this point.  He has the determination to win, more so than in recent years, and he proved in the Wimbledon final that he is better than his ranking of 6th in the world.  At this point, Roddick must be considered a heavier favorite than Djokovic and any price on Roddick of +600 (6/1) or better should be taken.

What to expect from Nadal in the 2009 US Open is not totally clear.  When he pulled out of Wimbledon, after losing the French, it was tough to know what to make of the situation.  Genuinely injured?  Off of his game and not wanting to take a bad loss?

Nadal is listed as a entry into the Rogers Cup in Montreal, Canada in a few weeks time, a tournament that he currently holds the single's title in.  The field in that tournament is Grand Slam-like with all the top players on the tour expected to be there.  Nadal's game will have to be scrutinized closely in that tournament to figure out if +350 (7/2) odds have any value but our inclination is that they do not at this point.

Historically, the US Open is Nadal's worst slam and since he has been such a question mark of late, how could picking him to win a tournament he's never won before be recommended?  Especially at just +350 (7/2)?

Down the list there is value in Del Potro and possibly even Fernando Gonzalez.  Del Potro is a player that many analysts think is going to take down a Grand Slam soon.  He's on top of his game and he's been deep in so many Slams lately, Wimbledon aside, that at +1000 (10/1) there has to be some value in picking him.

With Gonzalez, his hard hitting style of play should theoretically suit the hard courts of Flushing Meadows although he's only ever made the quarters there.  The value in Gonzalez is that he is set at +5000 (50/1) which is a little bit disrespectful of the French Open semifinalist who can stay in a match against anyone.  His true odds might be more like +2500 (25/1) and so picking him provides some value.

Our recommendation at this point is to pick Roddick and Del Potro to win the 2009 US Open.  With the odds they provide, only one winning bet is necessary to turn a good profit and backing those two players should keep your bets in play deep into the tournament.

If you are not looking to bet on this point then you would be smart to keep an eye on the early rounds of the Canadian Open, the Rogers Cup.  Look at Nadal in his early matches and try to find reasons to be confident in his game.  Convincing victories in the early rounds (like 6-3, 6-2) should signify that he is in fact a contender at this year's final Grand Slam event.